Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and geopolitical shocks overriding softening labor signals. The March 18 FOMC statement held rates steady, projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a meager -92,000 nonfarm payrolls add—yet resilient unemployment near 4.4%. Surging Brent crude to $115 per barrel from Iran Strait disruptions has elevated energy inflation risks, tempering near-term easing expectations. Key catalysts ahead include today's March jobs report and April 10 CPI release, with markets alert to any escalation in oil volatility or labor weakness that could shift the pause trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 16%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Pause–Cut–Pause 9.0%
最新
最新
2026-07-29
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
9%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
16%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 16%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Pause–Cut–Pause 9.0%
最新
最新
2026-07-29
Cut–Pause–Pause
$455 交易量
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$257 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$273 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$245 交易量
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$670 交易量
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$309 交易量
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$296 交易量
9%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$351 交易量
1%
Other
$323 交易量
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and geopolitical shocks overriding softening labor signals. The March 18 FOMC statement held rates steady, projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a meager -92,000 nonfarm payrolls add—yet resilient unemployment near 4.4%. Surging Brent crude to $115 per barrel from Iran Strait disruptions has elevated energy inflation risks, tempering near-term easing expectations. Key catalysts ahead include today's March jobs report and April 10 CPI release, with markets alert to any escalation in oil volatility or labor weakness that could shift the pause trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$3,177结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and geopolitical shocks overriding softening labor signals. The March 18 FOMC statement held rates steady, projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a meager -92,000 nonfarm payrolls add—yet resilient unemployment near 4.4%. Surging Brent crude to $115 per barrel from Iran Strait disruptions has elevated energy inflation risks, tempering near-term easing expectations. Key catalysts ahead include today's March jobs report and April 10 CPI release, with markets alert to any escalation in oil volatility or labor weakness that could shift the pause trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$3,177结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and geopolitical shocks overriding softening labor signals. The March 18 FOMC statement held rates steady, projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a meager -92,000 nonfarm payrolls add—yet resilient unemployment near 4.4%. Surging Brent crude to $115 per barrel from Iran Strait disruptions has elevated energy inflation risks, tempering near-term easing expectations. Key catalysts ahead include today's March jobs report and April 10 CPI release, with markets alert to any escalation in oil volatility or labor weakness that could shift the pause trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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