Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Cut–Pause–Pause 5.8%
最新
最新
2026-07-29
Cut–Pause–Pause
6%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Cut–Pause–Pause 5.8%
最新
最新
2026-07-29
Cut–Pause–Pause
$329 交易量
6%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$163 交易量
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$189 交易量
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$151 交易量
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$539 交易量
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$183 交易量
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$170 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$195 交易量
2%
Other
$196 交易量
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,115结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$2,115结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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