Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,755 交易量
2026-06-02
迈克·汤普森
99%
Eric Jones
95%
特雷弗·梅雷尔
15%
希斯·富克森
9%
Mandy Ghusar
6%
莎伦·布朗
5%
劳丽·麦肯齐
4%
约翰·韦斯利·泰勒
45%
$20,755 交易量
迈克·汤普森
$6,502 交易量
99%
Eric Jones
$4,052 交易量
95%
特雷弗·梅雷尔
$6,288 交易量
15%
希斯·富克森
$252 交易量
9%
Mandy Ghusar
$728 交易量
6%
莎伦·布朗
$1,605 交易量
5%
劳丽·麦肯齐
$710 交易量
4%
约翰·韦斯利·泰勒
$618 交易量
45%
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
交易量
$20,755结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$20,755结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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