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政治·主要

AZ-05共和党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

AZ-05共和党初选获胜者

马克·兰姆 88%

Travis Grantham 6.9%

Jay Feely 4.7%

Polymarket
最新

马克·兰姆 88%

Travis Grantham 6.9%

Jay Feely 4.7%

Polymarket
最新

马克·兰姆

$1,775 交易量

88%

Travis Grantham

$631 交易量

7%

Jay Feely

$0 交易量

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb holds commanding trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on August 4, driven by President Trump's November 2025 endorsement, backing from Club for Growth PAC and Freedom Caucus Fund, and a December internal poll showing him at 64% among likely GOP primary voters in the crowded open-seat race replacing Rep. Andy Biggs. State Rep. Travis Grantham's March 13 suspension of his campaign due to an Air Force active duty call-up has further consolidated Lamb's lead, leaving former NFL kicker Jay Feely as the primary trailing challenger at low single digits amid Lamb's superior name recognition. With three months until early voting, late endorsements or debate performances could marginally shift odds, though Lamb's momentum presents steep barriers in this deeply conservative district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$2,407
结束日期
2026-08-04
市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb holds commanding trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on August 4, driven by President Trump's November 2025 endorsement, backing from Club for Growth PAC and Freedom Caucus Fund, and a December internal poll showing him at 64% among likely GOP primary voters in the crowded open-seat race replacing Rep. Andy Biggs. State Rep. Travis Grantham's March 13 suspension of his campaign due to an Air Force active duty call-up has further consolidated Lamb's lead, leaving former NFL kicker Jay Feely as the primary trailing challenger at low single digits amid Lamb's superior name recognition. With three months until early voting, late endorsements or debate performances could marginally shift odds, though Lamb's momentum presents steep barriers in this deeply conservative district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$2,407
结束日期
2026-08-04
市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"AZ-05共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"马克·兰姆"，概率为 88%，其次是"Travis Grantham"，概率为 7%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 88¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 88%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"AZ-05共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Nov 25, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"AZ-05共和党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"AZ-05共和党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"马克·兰姆"，概率为 88%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 88%。紧随其后的结果是"Travis Grantham"，概率为 7%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"AZ-05共和党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。