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This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

OpenAI commands a commanding 89.5% implied probability on Polymarket to deliver the top AI model for coding by March 31, fueled by its o1-preview (82.7% on LiveCodeBench) and o1-mini (80.6%) dominating key benchmarks like LiveCodeBench and SWE-bench Verified since their September 2024 release. These reasoning-focused models excel in complex code generation and debugging, outpacing rivals and reinforcing trader confidence in OpenAI's rapid iteration amid hints of successor models like "Orion." Anthropic holds 6.5% with Claude 3.5 Sonnet's solid 75.8% LiveCodeBench score from June 2024, but lacks recent updates to close the gap. Laggards like Google (Gemini 2.0 at ~70%) and DeepSeek reflect trailing benchmark results, with no major catalysts shifting odds absent surprise launches before the deadline.

Google

OpenAI

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Mistral

Anthropic

阿里巴巴

Moonshot

哪家公司將在3月31日擁有最好的編碼AI模型？

Will Joe Biden get Coronavirus before the election?

Will Airbnb begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?

Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before Nov 3rd, 2020?

Will Kim Kardashian and Kanye West divorce before Jan 1, 2021?

Will Coinbase begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?

每週比特幣多重打擊

What will the price of Bitcoin be on November 4th, 2020?

Will Trump win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

Will there be an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) granted for a COVID-19 vaccine prior to Nov 3 2020?

What will the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi be at the end of 2020, according to DefiPulse?

What will the USD price of Filecoin ($FIL) be on November 17th, 2020?

Will Drake release a new studio album before the end of 2020?

Which party will win Florida in the 2020 presidential election?

How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there be at EOY in the USA?

Who will win the 2020 MLB World Series?

Will Dharma’s Phase 1 Retroactive UNI Distribution proposal pass?

Will there be a federal charge filed against Hunter Biden before 2021?

Will BTC break $15k before 2021?

Will Khabib win his UFC 254 Fight?

Will 538 outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?

Who will win the 2020 League of Legends World Championship?

Which party will win Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election?

Which party will win Texas in the 2020 presidential election?

Which party will win North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election?

Which party will win Georgia in the 2020 presidential election?

Which party will win Arizona in the 2020 Presidential Election?

Will Donald Trump tweet announcing that he won the election before November 5th 2020?

Will the Associated Press publish a tweet calling the 2020 US presidential election before November 6?

Will the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Event happen successfully on December 1st, 2020?

Will $BTC break $20k before 2021?

Will Donald Trump formally concede the 2020 US Election before December 1st, 2020?

Will LaMelo Ball be the first pick in the 2020 NBA draft?

Will Kanye West release a new studio album before 2021?

Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?

What will Airbnb's market cap be at close on its 1st day publicly trading?

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?

Will Trump win any of Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia?

Will any art piece on Superrare sell for more than $100k before 2021?

Will Uniswap v3 launch before 2021?

Will the Seahawks or the Rams win their week 10 NFL matchup?

Will indoor dining be prohibited in NYC at any point before 2021?

Will Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine be the first to receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?

Will Sushiswap have more TVL than Uniswap at any time before November 24th, according to DefiPulse?

Will $BTC break $20k before Thanksgiving?

Will Liverpool beat Leicester City in their Matchday 9 game?

Will Deiveson Figueiredo win his UFC 255 match?

What will the average sale price of the Jordan 1 Mocha on StockX be on Christmas Day?

Will Trump Pardon Himself in His First Term?

Which party will win the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia? (Ossoff - D vs. Perdue - R)

Which party will win the U.S. Senate special election in Georgia? (Loeffler - R vs Warnock - D)

Will Coinbase reach #1 in the Finance category on the US iOS App Store before 2021?

ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the second best AI model end of April?

Which company has the third best AI model end of April?

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

科技公司在20 26年向上或向下裁員？

ChatGPT中斷由... ？

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

克勞德4.7由...發布？

由… ？推出的“Money”

GPT-5.5由...發布？

人類會與五角大樓達成協議嗎？

Anthropic首席執行官被捕了？

特斯拉會在2026年以3萬或更低的價格出售Cybercab嗎？

哪家公司的人工智能將在2026年首次在聊天機器人競技場上達到1550 ？

6月30日前， Google Gemini在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分？

哪家公司3月底的人工智能模型最好？

3月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型排名第三？

6月底最大的公司？

哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型？

雙子座3.5由...發布？

Claude 5由… ？

最大的公司在2026年12月底？

OpenAI GPT在6月30日之前在人類的最後一次考試中得分？

OpenAI IPO收市市值高於___ ？

哪家公司3月底的人工智能模型排名最高？ （樣式控制開啓）

哪些CEO將在2027年之前離職？

到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？

哪家公司的AI模型在3月底排名第二？ （樣式控制開啓）

2027年之前將收購哪些公司？

OpenAI會在...前推出消費性硬體產品嗎？

2026年市值最大的IPO ？

DeepSeek V4由...發布？

Calling Anthropic before it happens. The website used for resolution is 2 months behind since latest release of their new models.

Really???? I bought all this without knowing that???