Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, fueled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's commanding 1504 Elo lead as of March 26, backed by over 5.6 million user votes isolating core reasoning from stylistic biases. A recent data leak revealed Anthropic's forthcoming "Mythos" model as a potential "step change" in capabilities, bolstering momentum after February's Opus 4.6 launch. Google trails at 22% with Gemini 3.1 Pro preview's sharp Elo climb to 1493, while OpenAI (12%) and xAI (7%) lag despite GPT-5.4-high and Grok-4.20 beta entries; rapid pre-June releases from these labs and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek could shift the closely contested race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 54%
Google 22%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$475,147 交易量
$475,147 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
48%
22%
OpenAI
12%
xAI
7%
Moonshot
2%
Mistral
2%
DeepSeek
2%
美團
2%
Z.ai
2%
阿里巴巴
1%
Anthropic 54%
Google 22%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$475,147 交易量
$475,147 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,265 交易量
48%
$8,724 交易量
22%
OpenAI
$42,728 交易量
12%
xAI
$0 交易量
7%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
2%
Mistral
$0 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$174,836 交易量
2%
美團
$115,115 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
2%
阿里巴巴
$117,480 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, fueled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's commanding 1504 Elo lead as of March 26, backed by over 5.6 million user votes isolating core reasoning from stylistic biases. A recent data leak revealed Anthropic's forthcoming "Mythos" model as a potential "step change" in capabilities, bolstering momentum after February's Opus 4.6 launch. Google trails at 22% with Gemini 3.1 Pro preview's sharp Elo climb to 1493, while OpenAI (12%) and xAI (7%) lag despite GPT-5.4-high and Grok-4.20 beta entries; rapid pre-June releases from these labs and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek could shift the closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$475,147結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, fueled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's commanding 1504 Elo lead as of March 26, backed by over 5.6 million user votes isolating core reasoning from stylistic biases. A recent data leak revealed Anthropic's forthcoming "Mythos" model as a potential "step change" in capabilities, bolstering momentum after February's Opus 4.6 launch. Google trails at 22% with Gemini 3.1 Pro preview's sharp Elo climb to 1493, while OpenAI (12%) and xAI (7%) lag despite GPT-5.4-high and Grok-4.20 beta entries; rapid pre-June releases from these labs and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek could shift the closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$475,147結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 48% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, fueled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's commanding 1504 Elo lead as of March 26, backed by over 5.6 million user votes isolating core reasoning from stylistic biases. A recent data leak revealed Anthropic's forthcoming "Mythos" model as a potential "step change" in capabilities, bolstering momentum after February's Opus 4.6 launch. Google trails at 22% with Gemini 3.1 Pro preview's sharp Elo climb to 1493, while OpenAI (12%) and xAI (7%) lag despite GPT-5.4-high and Grok-4.20 beta entries; rapid pre-June releases from these labs and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek could shift the closely contested race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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