Bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports prediction market contracts resembling bets or casino games, amid concerns over manipulation and insider trading. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket responded by updating policies to curb insider activity, while the CFTC's March 12 advance notice of proposed rulemaking solicits input on event contracts without proposing outright bans. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" enactment reflects slim prospects for passage in a divided Congress, where similar niche regulatory bills historically stall absent broad support, with focus shifting to agency rulemaking and state-level actions like Massachusetts' January sports ban.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports prediction market contracts resembling bets or casino games, amid concerns over manipulation and insider trading. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket responded by updating policies to curb insider activity, while the CFTC's March 12 advance notice of proposed rulemaking solicits input on event contracts without proposing outright bans. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" enactment reflects slim prospects for passage in a divided Congress, where similar niche regulatory bills historically stall absent broad support, with focus shifting to agency rulemaking and state-level actions like Massachusetts' January sports ban.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$24結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports prediction market contracts resembling bets or casino games, amid concerns over manipulation and insider trading. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket responded by updating policies to curb insider activity, while the CFTC's March 12 advance notice of proposed rulemaking solicits input on event contracts without proposing outright bans. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" enactment reflects slim prospects for passage in a divided Congress, where similar niche regulatory bills historically stall absent broad support, with focus shifting to agency rulemaking and state-level actions like Massachusetts' January sports ban.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$24結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports prediction market contracts resembling bets or casino games, amid concerns over manipulation and insider trading. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket responded by updating policies to curb insider activity, while the CFTC's March 12 advance notice of proposed rulemaking solicits input on event contracts without proposing outright bans. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" enactment reflects slim prospects for passage in a divided Congress, where similar niche regulatory bills historically stall absent broad support, with focus shifting to agency rulemaking and state-level actions like Massachusetts' January sports ban.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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