Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects a closely contested race, with "Other" at 45.5% signaling high uncertainty seven months out, while Democrats' 4-6%, 6-8%, and 8-10% victory bands each command 19.5-24% implied probabilities amid generic ballot polling averages of D+5.5 (Nate Silver) to D+6 (RCP). Recent late-March surveys—Economist/YouGov (D+6), Harvard-Harris (D+4 LV), Quantus Insights (D+6)—sustain this modest Democratic edge, fueled by President Trump's approval dipping to second-term lows around -17 net, economic disapproval on inflation and gas prices, and the historical midterm curse where the incumbent party loses the popular vote by ~5 points on average. Primaries in battleground states like Texas add volatility, with economic recovery or Iran developments as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Republicans 6%+ 14.0%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$27,856 交易量
$27,856 交易量
2026-11-03
Democrats 16%+
11%
Democrats 14-16%
5%
Democrats 12-14%
8%
Democrats 10-12%
9%
Democrats 8-10%
23%
Democrats 6-8%
20%
Democrats 4-6%
20%
Democrats 2-4%
12%
Democrats 0-2%
9%
Republicans 0-2%
18%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
14%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Republicans 6%+ 14.0%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$27,856 交易量
$27,856 交易量
2026-11-03
Democrats 16%+
$0 交易量
11%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 交易量
5%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 交易量
8%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 交易量
9%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 交易量
23%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 交易量
20%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 交易量
20%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 交易量
12%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 交易量
9%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 交易量
18%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,691 交易量
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 交易量
4%
Republicans 6%+
$626 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects a closely contested race, with "Other" at 45.5% signaling high uncertainty seven months out, while Democrats' 4-6%, 6-8%, and 8-10% victory bands each command 19.5-24% implied probabilities amid generic ballot polling averages of D+5.5 (Nate Silver) to D+6 (RCP). Recent late-March surveys—Economist/YouGov (D+6), Harvard-Harris (D+4 LV), Quantus Insights (D+6)—sustain this modest Democratic edge, fueled by President Trump's approval dipping to second-term lows around -17 net, economic disapproval on inflation and gas prices, and the historical midterm curse where the incumbent party loses the popular vote by ~5 points on average. Primaries in battleground states like Texas add volatility, with economic recovery or Iran developments as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
市場開放時間： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$27,856結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects a closely contested race, with "Other" at 45.5% signaling high uncertainty seven months out, while Democrats' 4-6%, 6-8%, and 8-10% victory bands each command 19.5-24% implied probabilities amid generic ballot polling averages of D+5.5 (Nate Silver) to D+6 (RCP). Recent late-March surveys—Economist/YouGov (D+6), Harvard-Harris (D+4 LV), Quantus Insights (D+6)—sustain this modest Democratic edge, fueled by President Trump's approval dipping to second-term lows around -17 net, economic disapproval on inflation and gas prices, and the historical midterm curse where the incumbent party loses the popular vote by ~5 points on average. Primaries in battleground states like Texas add volatility, with economic recovery or Iran developments as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
交易量
$27,856結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects a closely contested race, with "Other" at 45.5% signaling high uncertainty seven months out, while Democrats' 4-6%, 6-8%, and 8-10% victory bands each command 19.5-24% implied probabilities amid generic ballot polling averages of D+5.5 (Nate Silver) to D+6 (RCP). Recent late-March surveys—Economist/YouGov (D+6), Harvard-Harris (D+4 LV), Quantus Insights (D+6)—sustain this modest Democratic edge, fueled by President Trump's approval dipping to second-term lows around -17 net, economic disapproval on inflation and gas prices, and the historical midterm curse where the incumbent party loses the popular vote by ~5 points on average. Primaries in battleground states like Texas add volatility, with economic recovery or Iran developments as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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