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政治·國會

米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？

Market icon
政治·國會

米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$105,511 交易量

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$105,511 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senator Mitch McConnell announced in February 2025 that he will not seek re-election in 2026 but affirmed his commitment to serving out his full term ending January 2027, a stance unchanged amid ongoing health concerns including a recent episode where he appeared to zone out after voting against the SAVE Act in late March 2026. As chair of the Senate Rules Committee and Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, he remains active in legislative duties, with no official statements, party pressures, or medical developments indicating an early resignation. Trader consensus at 79% "No" reflects this stability and historical precedent of senators serving full terms post-retirement announcements, though his age of 84 introduces uncertainty ahead of the November 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
交易量
$105,511
結束日期
2027-01-03
市場開放時間
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senator Mitch McConnell announced in February 2025 that he will not seek re-election in 2026 but affirmed his commitment to serving out his full term ending January 2027, a stance unchanged amid ongoing health concerns including a recent episode where he appeared to zone out after voting against the SAVE Act in late March 2026. As chair of the Senate Rules Committee and Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, he remains active in legislative duties, with no official statements, party pressures, or medical developments indicating an early resignation. Trader consensus at 79% "No" reflects this stability and historical precedent of senators serving full terms post-retirement announcements, though his age of 84 introduces uncertainty ahead of the November 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
交易量
$105,511
結束日期
2027-01-03
市場開放時間
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前辭去參議員職務嗎？" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？" has generated $105.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？" is "米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前辭去參議員職務嗎？" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "米奇·麥康奈爾會在任期結束前離開參議院嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.