Recent Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School polling (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning yes on Virginia's constitutional amendment referendum to empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts, versus 47% opposed, bolstering trader consensus for passage on April 21. Democratic advantages in fundraising—over $20 million from groups like House Majority Forward and Soros-linked PACs, plus Barack Obama robocalls—contrast GOP grassroots mobilization, with early voting through April 18 revealing Democratic edges in partisan composition (19-point lead per StateNavigate) despite higher rural Republican turnout. Low-turnout special elections historically favor organized urban bases, driving Yes shares above 90% as the sole outcome exceeding that threshold, though surging No enthusiasm or court challenges could still shift results.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$243,466 交易量
$243,466 交易量
2026-04-21
是
$243,466 交易量
$243,466 交易量
2026-04-21
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School polling (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning yes on Virginia's constitutional amendment referendum to empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts, versus 47% opposed, bolstering trader consensus for passage on April 21. Democratic advantages in fundraising—over $20 million from groups like House Majority Forward and Soros-linked PACs, plus Barack Obama robocalls—contrast GOP grassroots mobilization, with early voting through April 18 revealing Democratic edges in partisan composition (19-point lead per StateNavigate) despite higher rural Republican turnout. Low-turnout special elections historically favor organized urban bases, driving Yes shares above 90% as the sole outcome exceeding that threshold, though surging No enthusiasm or court challenges could still shift results.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
市場開放時間： Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$243,466結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School polling (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning yes on Virginia's constitutional amendment referendum to empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts, versus 47% opposed, bolstering trader consensus for passage on April 21. Democratic advantages in fundraising—over $20 million from groups like House Majority Forward and Soros-linked PACs, plus Barack Obama robocalls—contrast GOP grassroots mobilization, with early voting through April 18 revealing Democratic edges in partisan composition (19-point lead per StateNavigate) despite higher rural Republican turnout. Low-turnout special elections historically favor organized urban bases, driving Yes shares above 90% as the sole outcome exceeding that threshold, though surging No enthusiasm or court challenges could still shift results.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
交易量
$243,466結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School polling (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning yes on Virginia's constitutional amendment referendum to empower the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts, versus 47% opposed, bolstering trader consensus for passage on April 21. Democratic advantages in fundraising—over $20 million from groups like House Majority Forward and Soros-linked PACs, plus Barack Obama robocalls—contrast GOP grassroots mobilization, with early voting through April 18 revealing Democratic edges in partisan composition (19-point lead per StateNavigate) despite higher rural Republican turnout. Low-turnout special elections historically favor organized urban bases, driving Yes shares above 90% as the sole outcome exceeding that threshold, though surging No enthusiasm or court challenges could still shift results.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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