Trader consensus favors 40-43 Republican House incumbents not running in 2026 at 44.7%, closely trailed by 36-39 at 37.5%, reflecting a record 36-37 announcements as of early April amid an accelerated pace unseen since 2018 midterms. A March surge—including Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Reps. Darrell Issa (March 6), Kevin Hern (Senate bid, March 11), Tony Gonzales, Burgess Owens, and Ryan Zinke—pushed counts higher, driven by slim GOP majorities, internal leadership strains under Speaker Johnson, and historical midterm pressures on the president's party. The tight race persists due to early-cycle timing, with vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts often deciding later; primaries this summer could trigger a wave of additional retirements or stabilize odds if recruitment succeeds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於28–31 8%
44人以上 6.9%
32–35 6%
少於24 4.7%
$52,599 交易量
$52,599 交易量
2026-08-31
少於24
5%
24–27
2%
28–31
8%
32–35
6%
36–39
36%
40–43
43%
44人以上
15%
28–31 8%
44人以上 6.9%
32–35 6%
少於24 4.7%
$52,599 交易量
$52,599 交易量
2026-08-31
少於24
$3,590 交易量
5%
24–27
$18,766 交易量
2%
28–31
$21,214 交易量
8%
32–35
$4,039 交易量
6%
36–39
$2,468 交易量
36%
40–43
$0 交易量
43%
44人以上
$2,522 交易量
15%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 40-43 Republican House incumbents not running in 2026 at 44.7%, closely trailed by 36-39 at 37.5%, reflecting a record 36-37 announcements as of early April amid an accelerated pace unseen since 2018 midterms. A March surge—including Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Reps. Darrell Issa (March 6), Kevin Hern (Senate bid, March 11), Tony Gonzales, Burgess Owens, and Ryan Zinke—pushed counts higher, driven by slim GOP majorities, internal leadership strains under Speaker Johnson, and historical midterm pressures on the president's party. The tight race persists due to early-cycle timing, with vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts often deciding later; primaries this summer could trigger a wave of additional retirements or stabilize odds if recruitment succeeds.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$52,599結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 40-43 Republican House incumbents not running in 2026 at 44.7%, closely trailed by 36-39 at 37.5%, reflecting a record 36-37 announcements as of early April amid an accelerated pace unseen since 2018 midterms. A March surge—including Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Reps. Darrell Issa (March 6), Kevin Hern (Senate bid, March 11), Tony Gonzales, Burgess Owens, and Ryan Zinke—pushed counts higher, driven by slim GOP majorities, internal leadership strains under Speaker Johnson, and historical midterm pressures on the president's party. The tight race persists due to early-cycle timing, with vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts often deciding later; primaries this summer could trigger a wave of additional retirements or stabilize odds if recruitment succeeds.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$52,599結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 40-43 Republican House incumbents not running in 2026 at 44.7%, closely trailed by 36-39 at 37.5%, reflecting a record 36-37 announcements as of early April amid an accelerated pace unseen since 2018 midterms. A March surge—including Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Reps. Darrell Issa (March 6), Kevin Hern (Senate bid, March 11), Tony Gonzales, Burgess Owens, and Ryan Zinke—pushed counts higher, driven by slim GOP majorities, internal leadership strains under Speaker Johnson, and historical midterm pressures on the president's party. The tight race persists due to early-cycle timing, with vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts often deciding later; primaries this summer could trigger a wave of additional retirements or stabilize odds if recruitment succeeds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions