Trader consensus favors 0.6–0.9 million votes at 37% implied probability in the Texas Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by historical precedents where turnout plunges 50–70% from initial primaries—here from the March 3 GOP primary's record 2.16 million ballots—due to voter fatigue and fewer contested races. The high-stakes U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton keeps mid-range buckets like 1.2–1.5 million viable at 30%, as recent polls (e.g., Quantus Insights March 24 showing Paxton 49–41) signal base enthusiasm amid heavy campaign spending. Tight odds reflect uncertainty over GOTV mobilization, with Paxton's edge among Trump-aligned voters and Cornyn's establishment support; early voting starting May 16 and potential endorsements could push toward higher turnout.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於60萬–90萬 48%
120萬–150萬 30%
240萬–270萬 24.0%
210萬–240萬 21%
最新
最新
2026-05-26
<0.6M
10%
60萬–90萬
37%
90萬–120萬
21%
120萬–150萬
30%
150萬–180萬
19%
180萬–210萬
20%
210萬–240萬
21%
240萬–270萬
15%
270萬以上
19%
60萬–90萬 48%
120萬–150萬 30%
240萬–270萬 24.0%
210萬–240萬 21%
最新
最新
2026-05-26
<0.6M
$0 交易量
10%
60萬–90萬
$0 交易量
37%
90萬–120萬
$379 交易量
21%
120萬–150萬
$3,693 交易量
30%
150萬–180萬
$0 交易量
19%
180萬–210萬
$38 交易量
20%
210萬–240萬
$0 交易量
21%
240萬–270萬
$124 交易量
15%
270萬以上
$0 交易量
19%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors 0.6–0.9 million votes at 37% implied probability in the Texas Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by historical precedents where turnout plunges 50–70% from initial primaries—here from the March 3 GOP primary's record 2.16 million ballots—due to voter fatigue and fewer contested races. The high-stakes U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton keeps mid-range buckets like 1.2–1.5 million viable at 30%, as recent polls (e.g., Quantus Insights March 24 showing Paxton 49–41) signal base enthusiasm amid heavy campaign spending. Tight odds reflect uncertainty over GOTV mobilization, with Paxton's edge among Trump-aligned voters and Cornyn's establishment support; early voting starting May 16 and potential endorsements could push toward higher turnout.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
交易量
$4,233結束日期
2026-05-26市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors 0.6–0.9 million votes at 37% implied probability in the Texas Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by historical precedents where turnout plunges 50–70% from initial primaries—here from the March 3 GOP primary's record 2.16 million ballots—due to voter fatigue and fewer contested races. The high-stakes U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton keeps mid-range buckets like 1.2–1.5 million viable at 30%, as recent polls (e.g., Quantus Insights March 24 showing Paxton 49–41) signal base enthusiasm amid heavy campaign spending. Tight odds reflect uncertainty over GOTV mobilization, with Paxton's edge among Trump-aligned voters and Cornyn's establishment support; early voting starting May 16 and potential endorsements could push toward higher turnout.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$4,233結束日期
2026-05-26市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 0.6–0.9 million votes at 37% implied probability in the Texas Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by historical precedents where turnout plunges 50–70% from initial primaries—here from the March 3 GOP primary's record 2.16 million ballots—due to voter fatigue and fewer contested races. The high-stakes U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton keeps mid-range buckets like 1.2–1.5 million viable at 30%, as recent polls (e.g., Quantus Insights March 24 showing Paxton 49–41) signal base enthusiasm amid heavy campaign spending. Tight odds reflect uncertainty over GOTV mobilization, with Paxton's edge among Trump-aligned voters and Cornyn's establishment support; early voting starting May 16 and potential endorsements could push toward higher turnout.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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