Traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots as of early April, showcasing superior Elo ratings in blind user battles across reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro recent surge to third place—following its March launch with enhanced abstract reasoning scores—bolsters its 24% odds, while DeepSeek's V4 impresses in specialized math and coding evals at 8.4%. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok 4.20 trail in top-10 rankings, fueling lower probabilities. Key catalysts include anticipated Claude 5 previews, Gemini updates at Google I/O, and fresh LMSYS data, amid crowded frontier competition where release timing could shift trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 54%
Google 24%
DeepSeek 8.4%
OpenAI 8%
$334,716 交易量
$334,716 交易量

Anthropic
54%

24%

DeepSeek
8%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
6%

Z.ai
1%

美團
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 54%
Google 24%
DeepSeek 8.4%
OpenAI 8%
$334,716 交易量
$334,716 交易量

Anthropic
54%

24%

DeepSeek
8%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
6%

Z.ai
1%

美團
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots as of early April, showcasing superior Elo ratings in blind user battles across reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro recent surge to third place—following its March launch with enhanced abstract reasoning scores—bolsters its 24% odds, while DeepSeek's V4 impresses in specialized math and coding evals at 8.4%. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok 4.20 trail in top-10 rankings, fueling lower probabilities. Key catalysts include anticipated Claude 5 previews, Gemini updates at Google I/O, and fresh LMSYS data, amid crowded frontier competition where release timing could shift trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions