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選舉·世界選舉

2028年總統選舉贏家

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年總統選舉贏家

JD Vance 17.6%

加文·紐森 17.3%

馬可·魯比歐 10.6%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 5.8%

Polymarket

$467,707,638 交易量

JD Vance 17.6%

加文·紐森 17.3%

馬可·魯比歐 10.6%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 5.8%

Polymarket

$467,707,638 交易量

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JD Vance

$9,068,632 交易量

18%

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加文·紐森

$6,661,496 交易量

17%

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馬可·魯比歐

$5,256,124 交易量

11%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$10,345,376 交易量

6%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$2,898,146 交易量

3%

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塔克·卡爾森

$9,191,168 交易量

3%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$6,426,876 交易量

3%

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喬希·夏皮羅

$5,297,618 交易量

2%

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唐納德·川普

$6,390,193 交易量

2%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$3,437,023 交易量

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,276,854 交易量

2%

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羅恩·德桑蒂斯

$5,743,893 交易量

2%

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德韋恩·「巨石」·強森

$5,550,700 交易量

1%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$3,711,125 交易量

1%

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安迪·貝希爾

$14,880,697 交易量

1%

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伊萬卡·川普

$3,947,295 交易量

1%

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傑米·戴蒙

$7,018,110 交易量

1%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$13,167,436 交易量

1%

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埃隆·馬斯克

$21,624,277 交易量

1%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,488,230 交易量

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,296,496 交易量

1%

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韋斯·摩爾

$5,497,909 交易量

1%

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唐納德·川普二世

$8,316,166 交易量

1%

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羅·卡納

$5,496,789 交易量

1%

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托馬斯·馬西

$3,237,272 交易量

1%

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妮基·黑利

$20,864,996 交易量

1%

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圖西·加巴德

$27,059,524 交易量

1%

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提姆·沃茲

$38,315,665 交易量

1%

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格倫·揚金

$19,661,420 交易量

1%

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史蒂芬·史密斯

$28,090,448 交易量

1%

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維韋克·拉馬斯瓦米

$28,787,754 交易量

1%

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祖蘭·曼達尼

$16,187,982 交易量

1%

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埃里克·川普

$4,863,492 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$42,252,974 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$28,764,571 交易量

1%

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彼特·赫格塞斯

$1,634,727 交易量

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance commands trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner following his dominant 53% victory in the March 28 CPAC straw poll among conservatives, outpacing Sen. Marco Rubio's rising 10.6% share, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds steady at 17.3% as the leading Democratic contender per early national polls like Emerson's. This razor-thin GOP-Democratic split reflects the open primaries triggered by President Trump's constitutional term limit, with skin-in-the-game bettors weighing Vance's incumbency edge and national profile against Democrats' post-2024 search for a unifying figure amid fragmented early polling. The 2026 midterms, Trump's potential endorsements, swing-state polling shifts, or scandals could widen leads, as historical base rates show vice presidents winning nominations only about 25% of the time.

Vice President JD Vance commands trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner following his dominant 53% victory in the March 28 CPAC straw poll among conservatives, outpacing Sen. Marco Rubio's rising 10.6% share, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds steady at 17.3% as the leading Democratic contender per early national polls like Emerson's. This razor-thin GOP-Democratic split reflects the open primaries triggered by President Trump's constitutional term limit, with skin-in-the-game bettors weighing Vance's incumbency edge and national profile against Democrats' post-2024 search for a unifying figure amid fragmented early polling. The 2026 midterms, Trump's potential endorsements, swing-state polling shifts, or scandals could widen leads, as historical base rates show vice presidents winning nominations only about 25% of the time.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance commands trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner following his dominant 53% victory in the March 28 CPAC straw poll among conservatives, outpacing Sen. Marco Rubio's rising 10.6% share, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds steady at 17.3% as the leading Democratic contender per early national polls like Emerson's. This razor-thin GOP-Democratic split reflects the open primaries triggered by President Trump's constitutional term limit, with skin-in-the-game bettors weighing Vance's incumbency edge and national profile against Democrats' post-2024 search for a unifying figure amid fragmented early polling. The 2026 midterms, Trump's potential endorsements, swing-state polling shifts, or scandals could widen leads, as historical base rates show vice presidents winning nominations only about 25% of the time.

Vice President JD Vance commands trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner following his dominant 53% victory in the March 28 CPAC straw poll among conservatives, outpacing Sen. Marco Rubio's rising 10.6% share, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds steady at 17.3% as the leading Democratic contender per early national polls like Emerson's. This razor-thin GOP-Democratic split reflects the open primaries triggered by President Trump's constitutional term limit, with skin-in-the-game bettors weighing Vance's incumbency edge and national profile against Democrats' post-2024 search for a unifying figure amid fragmented early polling. The 2026 midterms, Trump's potential endorsements, swing-state polling shifts, or scandals could widen leads, as historical base rates show vice presidents winning nominations only about 25% of the time.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年總統選舉贏家" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "加文·紐森" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年總統選舉贏家" has generated $467.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年總統選舉贏家," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年總統選舉贏家" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "加文·紐森" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年總統選舉贏家" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.