Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Waymo <1%
$1,611,504 交易量
$1,611,504 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Waymo
1%
Discord
<1%
Kraken
<1%
Databricks
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Waymo <1%
$1,611,504 交易量
$1,611,504 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$177,892 交易量
90%
OpenAI
$294,250 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$341,845 交易量
4%
Waymo
$43,387 交易量
1%
Discord
$67,013 交易量
<1%
Kraken
$371,662 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$66,592 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$83,654 交易量
<1%
Stripe
$36,881 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$24,318 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,593 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$51,417 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,611,504結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,611,504結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions