Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by recent Reuters and Financial Times reports of imminent IPO filing this week for a mid-June listing targeting $50-75 billion raised at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. Key drivers include Starlink's satellite constellation dominance generating $24 billion projected 2026 revenue, accelerating launch cadence with reusable rockets, and a merger with xAI integrating artificial intelligence for orbital data centers, as confirmed by executive departures and funding rounds valuing xAI at $230 billion. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid merger speculation but trails as a standalone. Anthropic's Q4 IPO exploration at potentially $60 billion pales in scale and timing, while OpenAI lacks firm 2026 commitments; watch for SpaceX prospectus details and regulatory filings that could affirm or delay the mega-debut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.0%
OpenAI 3.9%
Discord <1%
$1,623,751 交易量
$1,623,751 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
4%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Waymo
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.0%
OpenAI 3.9%
Discord <1%
$1,623,751 交易量
$1,623,751 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$179,681 交易量
90%
Anthropic
$342,646 交易量
4%
OpenAI
$295,435 交易量
4%
Discord
$67,995 交易量
1%
Kraken
$373,589 交易量
1%
Stripe
$38,538 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$67,350 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$84,167 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$53,141 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$24,929 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$44,340 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$51,940 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by recent Reuters and Financial Times reports of imminent IPO filing this week for a mid-June listing targeting $50-75 billion raised at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. Key drivers include Starlink's satellite constellation dominance generating $24 billion projected 2026 revenue, accelerating launch cadence with reusable rockets, and a merger with xAI integrating artificial intelligence for orbital data centers, as confirmed by executive departures and funding rounds valuing xAI at $230 billion. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid merger speculation but trails as a standalone. Anthropic's Q4 IPO exploration at potentially $60 billion pales in scale and timing, while OpenAI lacks firm 2026 commitments; watch for SpaceX prospectus details and regulatory filings that could affirm or delay the mega-debut.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,623,751結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by recent Reuters and Financial Times reports of imminent IPO filing this week for a mid-June listing targeting $50-75 billion raised at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. Key drivers include Starlink's satellite constellation dominance generating $24 billion projected 2026 revenue, accelerating launch cadence with reusable rockets, and a merger with xAI integrating artificial intelligence for orbital data centers, as confirmed by executive departures and funding rounds valuing xAI at $230 billion. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid merger speculation but trails as a standalone. Anthropic's Q4 IPO exploration at potentially $60 billion pales in scale and timing, while OpenAI lacks firm 2026 commitments; watch for SpaceX prospectus details and regulatory filings that could affirm or delay the mega-debut.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,623,751結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by recent Reuters and Financial Times reports of imminent IPO filing this week for a mid-June listing targeting $50-75 billion raised at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. Key drivers include Starlink's satellite constellation dominance generating $24 billion projected 2026 revenue, accelerating launch cadence with reusable rockets, and a merger with xAI integrating artificial intelligence for orbital data centers, as confirmed by executive departures and funding rounds valuing xAI at $230 billion. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid merger speculation but trails as a standalone. Anthropic's Q4 IPO exploration at potentially $60 billion pales in scale and timing, while OpenAI lacks firm 2026 commitments; watch for SpaceX prospectus details and regulatory filings that could affirm or delay the mega-debut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions