2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？

Name: 2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？
Start: 2026-01-02T20:40:16.847Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

科技·特斯拉

2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？

Mar 31

35萬–37.5萬 72%

少於35萬輛 22%

37.5萬–40萬 4.8%

40萬–42.5萬 <1%

$768,706 交易量

Mar 31, 2026

少於35萬輛

$253,888 交易量

22%

35萬–37.5萬

$139,295 交易量

72%

37.5萬–40萬

$51,316 交易量

40萬–42.5萬

$28,971 交易量

<1%

425k–450k

$57,148 交易量

<1%

45萬–47.5萬

$167,245 交易量

<1%

47.5萬–50萬

$44,368 交易量

<1%

50萬+

$26,475 交易量

<1%

35萬–37.5萬 72%

少於35萬輛 22%

37.5萬–40萬 4.8%

40萬–42.5萬 <1%

$768,706 交易量

Mar 31, 2026

少於35萬輛

$253,888 交易量

22%

35萬–37.5萬

$139,295 交易量

72%

37.5萬–40萬

$51,316 交易量

40萬–42.5萬

$28,971 交易量

<1%

425k–450k

$57,148 交易量

<1%

45萬–47.5萬

$167,245 交易量

<1%

47.5萬–50萬

$44,368 交易量

<1%

50萬+

$26,475 交易量

<1%

Tesla's freshly published analyst consensus on March 26, projecting 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3 and Model Y at around 351,000 units—has solidified trader consensus around the 350k–375k outcome at 72% implied probability, reflecting steady production ramps at Giga Shanghai and Texas amid softer EV demand. This marks an 8% uptick from Q1 2025 but falls short of loftier prior estimates near 418,000, prompting a 22.5% chance for sub-350k on concerns over inventory buildup and competition from BYD and legacy automakers. RBC Capital's 367,000 forecast reinforces the midpoint, though official figures due early April could shift odds based on final-week push and Cybertruck scaling.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 29, 2026, 5:03 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35萬–37.5萬" at 72%, followed by "少於35萬輛" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" has generated $768.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" is "35萬–37.5萬" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "少於35萬輛" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $768.7K traded on “2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 72¢ for "35萬–37.5萬" in the "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 72% chance that "35萬–37.5萬" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 72¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 28¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？" market has an active community of 13 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？

2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少輛車？

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