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地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

Market icon
地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

Dec 31

Dec 31

30至40萬 35%

40萬到50萬 23%

20-30萬 22%

50萬到60萬 10%

Polymarket

$19,370 交易量

30至40萬 35%

40萬到50萬 23%

20-30萬 22%

50萬到60萬 10%

Polymarket

$19,370 交易量

少於20萬

$0 交易量

9%

20-30萬

$3,580 交易量

22%

30至40萬

$1,833 交易量

35%

40萬到50萬

$0 交易量

23%

50萬到60萬

$2,395 交易量

10%

60至70萬

$0 交易量

4%

70萬至80萬

$0 交易量

1%

80萬到90萬

$8,209 交易量

4%

90萬-100萬

$0 交易量

1%

>1百萬

$3,353 交易量

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus favors 300-400k ICE removals in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting steady first-quarter enforcement pace of roughly 75,000-100,000 formal deportations extrapolated annually, amid expanded detention to 68,000 individuals and record removal flights in January. This positioning stems from DHS hiring 12,000 additional officers for 120% capacity growth, yet logistical constraints, sanctuary city resistance, and data transparency concerns limit acceleration beyond Obama-era peaks of ~400k yearly. Recent March developments, including DHS leadership shake-up and Senate confirmation hearings for the secretary nominee, introduce uncertainty; successful confirmation and appropriations votes could consolidate support toward 400-500k, while legal injunctions or funding delays might favor lower bins like 200-300k.

Trader consensus favors 300-400k ICE removals in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting steady first-quarter enforcement pace of roughly 75,000-100,000 formal deportations extrapolated annually, amid expanded detention to 68,000 individuals and record removal flights in January. This positioning stems from DHS hiring 12,000 additional officers for 120% capacity growth, yet logistical constraints, sanctuary city resistance, and data transparency concerns limit acceleration beyond Obama-era peaks of ~400k yearly. Recent March developments, including DHS leadership shake-up and Senate confirmation hearings for the secretary nominee, introduce uncertainty; successful confirmation and appropriations votes could consolidate support toward 400-500k, while legal injunctions or funding delays might favor lower bins like 200-300k.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus favors 300-400k ICE removals in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting steady first-quarter enforcement pace of roughly 75,000-100,000 formal deportations extrapolated annually, amid expanded detention to 68,000 individuals and record removal flights in January. This positioning stems from DHS hiring 12,000 additional officers for 120% capacity growth, yet logistical constraints, sanctuary city resistance, and data transparency concerns limit acceleration beyond Obama-era peaks of ~400k yearly. Recent March developments, including DHS leadership shake-up and Senate confirmation hearings for the secretary nominee, introduce uncertainty; successful confirmation and appropriations votes could consolidate support toward 400-500k, while legal injunctions or funding delays might favor lower bins like 200-300k.

Trader consensus favors 300-400k ICE removals in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting steady first-quarter enforcement pace of roughly 75,000-100,000 formal deportations extrapolated annually, amid expanded detention to 68,000 individuals and record removal flights in January. This positioning stems from DHS hiring 12,000 additional officers for 120% capacity growth, yet logistical constraints, sanctuary city resistance, and data transparency concerns limit acceleration beyond Obama-era peaks of ~400k yearly. Recent March developments, including DHS leadership shake-up and Senate confirmation hearings for the secretary nominee, introduce uncertainty; successful confirmation and appropriations votes could consolidate support toward 400-500k, while legal injunctions or funding delays might favor lower bins like 200-300k.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30至40萬" at 35%, followed by "40萬到50萬" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" has generated $19.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is "30至40萬" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40萬到50萬" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.