Market icon
地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

Market icon
地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

12月 31

12月 31

30至40萬 42%

40萬到50萬 23%

20-30萬 17%

少於20萬 8.1%

Polymarket

$35,574 交易量

30至40萬 42%

40萬到50萬 23%

20-30萬 17%

少於20萬 8.1%

Polymarket

$35,574 交易量

少於20萬

$6,567 交易量

8%

20-30萬

$4,034 交易量

17%

30至40萬

$2,127 交易量

42%

40萬到50萬

$2,600 交易量

23%

50萬到60萬

$2,615 交易量

5%

60至70萬

$1,567 交易量

2%

70萬至80萬

$1,887 交易量

1%

80萬到90萬

$8,465 交易量

2%

90萬-100萬

$2,114 交易量

<1%

>1百萬

$3,598 交易量

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus favors 300-400k deportations (41.5%) and 400-500k (23.5%) for 2026, reflecting ICE's early-year enforcement pace amid capacity constraints and logistical hurdles like limited detention beds (around 70,000) and court backlogs. First-quarter data shows removals trailing ambitious 1 million goals set by Trump advisers and echoed in a new Mass Deportation Coalition playbook released April 1, despite hiring 12,000 more agents and quadrupled interior arrests in prior months. Recent opacity in DHS reporting (noted March 15) and ongoing sanctuary city resistance temper higher outcomes, while funding debates and workplace raid plans could accelerate activity later in the year. Historical ICE annual removals (250-400k under prior administrations) anchor the modest leading probabilities.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$35,574
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus favors 300-400k deportations (41.5%) and 400-500k (23.5%) for 2026, reflecting ICE's early-year enforcement pace amid capacity constraints and logistical hurdles like limited detention beds (around 70,000) and court backlogs. First-quarter data shows removals trailing ambitious 1 million goals set by Trump advisers and echoed in a new Mass Deportation Coalition playbook released April 1, despite hiring 12,000 more agents and quadrupled interior arrests in prior months. Recent opacity in DHS reporting (noted March 15) and ongoing sanctuary city resistance temper higher outcomes, while funding debates and workplace raid plans could accelerate activity later in the year. Historical ICE annual removals (250-400k under prior administrations) anchor the modest leading probabilities.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$35,574
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30至40萬" at 42%, followed by "40萬到50萬" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" has generated $35.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is "30至40萬" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40萬到50萬" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.