Weather models from ECMWF, GFS, and Italy's national meteorological service project Milan's highest temperature on March 19 exceeding 18°C, with consensus highs around 19-21°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring conditions atypical for mid-March averages of 12-14°C. This drives the 100% market-implied probability, supported by verified recent observations of above-normal temps across northern Italy and low volatility in ensemble forecasts. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen breakdown of the ridge by northerly foehn winds or cold air advection, potentially capping highs at 17°C, though current 00Z runs show under 5% ensemble probability for such outliers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Milan on March 19?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 19?
18°C or higher 100.0%
8°C или ниже <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$37,797 Объем
$37,797 Объем
8°C или ниже
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
No
18°C or higher
Yes
18°C or higher 100.0%
8°C или ниже <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$37,797 Объем
$37,797 Объем
8°C или ниже
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
No
18°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Weather models from ECMWF, GFS, and Italy's national meteorological service project Milan's highest temperature on March 19 exceeding 18°C, with consensus highs around 19-21°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring conditions atypical for mid-March averages of 12-14°C. This drives the 100% market-implied probability, supported by verified recent observations of above-normal temps across northern Italy and low volatility in ensemble forecasts. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen breakdown of the ridge by northerly foehn winds or cold air advection, potentially capping highs at 17°C, though current 00Z runs show under 5% ensemble probability for such outliers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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