Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 17°C (38%) in Madrid on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions amid a weakening Atlantic low-pressure system influencing the Iberian Peninsula. Recent AEMET updates and GFS 00Z runs project daytime highs of 16-18°C, aligning with Madrid's late-March climatology (historical average max ~17°C) and current upper-air patterns featuring a ridge over western Europe tempering warmth. Lower odds for extremes reflect model spread: cooler 15°C or below (12%) if cloud cover persists, while 20°C+ remains unlikely (<10% combined) absent sudden föhn winds. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model refresh for potential shifts as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
17°C 40%
16°C 23%
18°C 18.9%
15°C or below 12%
$85,438 Объем
$85,438 Объем
15°C or below
12%
16°C
23%
17°C
40%
18°C
19%
19°C
5%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
17°C 40%
16°C 23%
18°C 18.9%
15°C or below 12%
$85,438 Объем
$85,438 Объем
15°C or below
12%
16°C
23%
17°C
40%
18°C
19%
19°C
5%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 17°C (38%) in Madrid on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions amid a weakening Atlantic low-pressure system influencing the Iberian Peninsula. Recent AEMET updates and GFS 00Z runs project daytime highs of 16-18°C, aligning with Madrid's late-March climatology (historical average max ~17°C) and current upper-air patterns featuring a ridge over western Europe tempering warmth. Lower odds for extremes reflect model spread: cooler 15°C or below (12%) if cloud cover persists, while 20°C+ remains unlikely (<10% combined) absent sudden föhn winds. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model refresh for potential shifts as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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