Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering for Chicago's highest temperature on March 26, with 66-67°F at 19.5% edging out 64-65°F and 68-69°F at 17% each, driven by the National Weather Service's latest guidance projecting a high near 65°F amid a mild southerly flow and weak ridge aloft. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show a 3-5°F spread due to uncertainties in daytime mixing and partial cloud cover from an approaching shortwave trough, preventing any outcome from dominating. Above-normal warmth stems from persistent 500 mb ridging over the central U.S., contrasting March climatology (average high ~46°F). New hourly updates from O'Hare observations and afternoon model refreshes could refine the peak by 1-2°F before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
66-67°F 20%
68-69°F 17%
62-63°F 15%
64-65°F 15%
$138,296 Объем
$138,296 Объем
59°F or below
8%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 20%
68-69°F 17%
62-63°F 15%
64-65°F 15%
$138,296 Объем
$138,296 Объем
59°F or below
8%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering for Chicago's highest temperature on March 26, with 66-67°F at 19.5% edging out 64-65°F and 68-69°F at 17% each, driven by the National Weather Service's latest guidance projecting a high near 65°F amid a mild southerly flow and weak ridge aloft. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show a 3-5°F spread due to uncertainties in daytime mixing and partial cloud cover from an approaching shortwave trough, preventing any outcome from dominating. Above-normal warmth stems from persistent 500 mb ridging over the central U.S., contrasting March climatology (average high ~46°F). New hourly updates from O'Hare observations and afternoon model refreshes could refine the peak by 1-2°F before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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