Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Chicago high of 70-71°F on March 20, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, alongside the National Weather Service's point forecast of 70°F at O'Hare International Airport, the standard observation site. This positioning reflects high model agreement within 48-72 hours out, with minimal spread in temperature projections amid stable upper-air patterns favoring mild southerly flow and light cloud cover. Historical March baselines hover in the 40s°F, making this an unusually warm but plausible outlier supported by recent Midwest warmth trends. Realistic challenges include an unexpected cold frontal passage or enhanced cloudiness from Great Lakes moisture, potentially dropping temps 5-10°F, though current guidance shows low probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$262,428 Объем
$262,428 Объем
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$262,428 Объем
$262,428 Объем
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Chicago high of 70-71°F on March 20, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, alongside the National Weather Service's point forecast of 70°F at O'Hare International Airport, the standard observation site. This positioning reflects high model agreement within 48-72 hours out, with minimal spread in temperature projections amid stable upper-air patterns favoring mild southerly flow and light cloud cover. Historical March baselines hover in the 40s°F, making this an unusually warm but plausible outlier supported by recent Midwest warmth trends. Realistic challenges include an unexpected cold frontal passage or enhanced cloudiness from Great Lakes moisture, potentially dropping temps 5-10°F, though current guidance shows low probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы