Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward 11°C (37.5% implied probability) and 12°C (32.5%) as top outcomes for Ankara's March 22 high temperature, reflecting a mean projection near 11.5°C under persistent northerly winds and a shallow upper-level trough suppressing highs. Differentiating factors include model spread: ECMWF members favor 11°C with increased cloud cover from an approaching front, while GFS outliers hit 12°C in drier scenarios; 10°C (20%) gains traction from cooler Canadian air advection risks. Historical March 22 averages hover at 13°C, but current jet stream positioning adds downside uncertainty ahead of Turkish Met Office updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
11°C 37%
12°C 33%
10°C 20%
13°C 5.2%
$142,764 Объем
$142,764 Объем
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
20%
11°C
37%
12°C
33%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 37%
12°C 33%
10°C 20%
13°C 5.2%
$142,764 Объем
$142,764 Объем
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
20%
11°C
37%
12°C
33%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward 11°C (37.5% implied probability) and 12°C (32.5%) as top outcomes for Ankara's March 22 high temperature, reflecting a mean projection near 11.5°C under persistent northerly winds and a shallow upper-level trough suppressing highs. Differentiating factors include model spread: ECMWF members favor 11°C with increased cloud cover from an approaching front, while GFS outliers hit 12°C in drier scenarios; 10°C (20%) gains traction from cooler Canadian air advection risks. Historical March 22 averages hover at 13°C, but current jet stream positioning adds downside uncertainty ahead of Turkish Met Office updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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