Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% bin at 36.5% implied probability, closely aligning with Banco Central do Brasil's unchanged 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast from its March 26 quarterly inflation report amid surging prices from the Iran conflict's oil shock. This positioning reflects strong January leading indicators—industrial production up 1.8% month-on-month, retail sales rising 0.4%, and IBC-Br activity index advancing 0.8%—offsetting Q4 2025's sluggish 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion and Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of up to 1% Q1 sequential growth. Elevated odds for <0.7% at 19% stem from labor market softening, with unemployment at 5.8% in the February-moving quarter and manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, alongside the Selic rate's initial cut to 14.75% on March 18. February data releases loom as key catalysts ahead of the May Q1 GDP report.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Объем
$14,638 Объем
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
19%
0.7%–1.0%
10%
1.1%–1.4%
11%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
14%
2.3%–2.6%
14%
≥2.7%
10%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Объем
$14,638 Объем
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,163 Объем
19%
0.7%–1.0%
$10 Объем
10%
1.1%–1.4%
$5 Объем
11%
1.5%–1.8%
$227 Объем
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$63 Объем
14%
2.3%–2.6%
$10 Объем
14%
≥2.7%
$1,161 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% bin at 36.5% implied probability, closely aligning with Banco Central do Brasil's unchanged 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast from its March 26 quarterly inflation report amid surging prices from the Iran conflict's oil shock. This positioning reflects strong January leading indicators—industrial production up 1.8% month-on-month, retail sales rising 0.4%, and IBC-Br activity index advancing 0.8%—offsetting Q4 2025's sluggish 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion and Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of up to 1% Q1 sequential growth. Elevated odds for <0.7% at 19% stem from labor market softening, with unemployment at 5.8% in the February-moving quarter and manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, alongside the Selic rate's initial cut to 14.75% on March 18. February data releases loom as key catalysts ahead of the May Q1 GDP report.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Объем
$14,638Дата окончания
May 29, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% bin at 36.5% implied probability, closely aligning with Banco Central do Brasil's unchanged 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast from its March 26 quarterly inflation report amid surging prices from the Iran conflict's oil shock. This positioning reflects strong January leading indicators—industrial production up 1.8% month-on-month, retail sales rising 0.4%, and IBC-Br activity index advancing 0.8%—offsetting Q4 2025's sluggish 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion and Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of up to 1% Q1 sequential growth. Elevated odds for <0.7% at 19% stem from labor market softening, with unemployment at 5.8% in the February-moving quarter and manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, alongside the Selic rate's initial cut to 14.75% on March 18. February data releases loom as key catalysts ahead of the May Q1 GDP report.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$14,638Дата окончания
May 29, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 1.5%–1.8% bin at 36.5% implied probability, closely aligning with Banco Central do Brasil's unchanged 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast from its March 26 quarterly inflation report amid surging prices from the Iran conflict's oil shock. This positioning reflects strong January leading indicators—industrial production up 1.8% month-on-month, retail sales rising 0.4%, and IBC-Br activity index advancing 0.8%—offsetting Q4 2025's sluggish 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion and Finance Minister Haddad's March 14 projection of up to 1% Q1 sequential growth. Elevated odds for <0.7% at 19% stem from labor market softening, with unemployment at 5.8% in the February-moving quarter and manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, alongside the Selic rate's initial cut to 14.75% on March 18. February data releases loom as key catalysts ahead of the May Q1 GDP report.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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