Trader consensus reflects 100% certainty on no US-Iran nuclear deal by the March 31 deadline, as indirect Geneva negotiations collapsed in late February without agreement despite claims of progress, leaving maximalist US demands for zero uranium enrichment unmet by Tehran. President Trump's administration issued ultimatums tied to broader military objectives, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but announced on March 31 plans to withdraw US forces from the Iran conflict within weeks regardless of diplomatic outcome, signaling de-prioritization. Escalations from Israeli strikes post-2025 IAEA disputes and Iran's safeguards violations further eroded prospects. Only an unreported pre-deadline signing—now improbable given public statements—could alter resolution. New talks may resume in June.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$1,551,322 Vol.
$1,551,322 Vol.
Sim
$1,551,322 Vol.
$1,551,322 Vol.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus reflects 100% certainty on no US-Iran nuclear deal by the March 31 deadline, as indirect Geneva negotiations collapsed in late February without agreement despite claims of progress, leaving maximalist US demands for zero uranium enrichment unmet by Tehran. President Trump's administration issued ultimatums tied to broader military objectives, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but announced on March 31 plans to withdraw US forces from the Iran conflict within weeks regardless of diplomatic outcome, signaling de-prioritization. Escalations from Israeli strikes post-2025 IAEA disputes and Iran's safeguards violations further eroded prospects. Only an unreported pre-deadline signing—now improbable given public statements—could alter resolution. New talks may resume in June.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions