Recent polls, including GQR (March 19–23) showing Ken Paxton at 47% to John Cornyn's 42% and Quantus Insights with Paxton at 48%–43%, have solidified trader consensus implying a Paxton victory by 9% or more, reflecting his firmer base support and superior enthusiasm (85% max turnout rating vs. Cornyn's 70%) among MAGA-skewed likely Republican runoff voters ahead of the May 26 contest. Paxton's primary performance, narrowly trailing the incumbent despite a crowded field, boosted his momentum, while Cornyn faces backlash over past positions on immigration and Biden nominees. Freshest developments include Cornyn's attacks tying Paxton to a January 2025 AG staff travel probe and Rep. Brandon Gill's endorsement for Paxton, amid lingering uncertainty over a potential Trump intervention.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPaxton 9%+ 36.5%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 13.1%
Paxton 6–9% 12%
$45,428 Vol.
$45,428 Vol.
25 mai 2026
Paxton 9%+
36%
Paxton 6–9%
12%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
11%
Cornyn <3%
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
14%
Paxton 9%+ 36.5%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 13.1%
Paxton 6–9% 12%
$45,428 Vol.
$45,428 Vol.
25 mai 2026
Paxton 9%+
$8,677 Vol.
36%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,927 Vol.
12%
Paxton 3–6%
$4,539 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$6,173 Vol.
11%
Cornyn <3%
$3,642 Vol.
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,142 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,616 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$8,711 Vol.
14%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including GQR (March 19–23) showing Ken Paxton at 47% to John Cornyn's 42% and Quantus Insights with Paxton at 48%–43%, have solidified trader consensus implying a Paxton victory by 9% or more, reflecting his firmer base support and superior enthusiasm (85% max turnout rating vs. Cornyn's 70%) among MAGA-skewed likely Republican runoff voters ahead of the May 26 contest. Paxton's primary performance, narrowly trailing the incumbent despite a crowded field, boosted his momentum, while Cornyn faces backlash over past positions on immigration and Biden nominees. Freshest developments include Cornyn's attacks tying Paxton to a January 2025 AG staff travel probe and Rep. Brandon Gill's endorsement for Paxton, amid lingering uncertainty over a potential Trump intervention.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$45,428Data de Término
25 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including GQR (March 19–23) showing Ken Paxton at 47% to John Cornyn's 42% and Quantus Insights with Paxton at 48%–43%, have solidified trader consensus implying a Paxton victory by 9% or more, reflecting his firmer base support and superior enthusiasm (85% max turnout rating vs. Cornyn's 70%) among MAGA-skewed likely Republican runoff voters ahead of the May 26 contest. Paxton's primary performance, narrowly trailing the incumbent despite a crowded field, boosted his momentum, while Cornyn faces backlash over past positions on immigration and Biden nominees. Freshest developments include Cornyn's attacks tying Paxton to a January 2025 AG staff travel probe and Rep. Brandon Gill's endorsement for Paxton, amid lingering uncertainty over a potential Trump intervention.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$45,428Data de Término
25 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including GQR (March 19–23) showing Ken Paxton at 47% to John Cornyn's 42% and Quantus Insights with Paxton at 48%–43%, have solidified trader consensus implying a Paxton victory by 9% or more, reflecting his firmer base support and superior enthusiasm (85% max turnout rating vs. Cornyn's 70%) among MAGA-skewed likely Republican runoff voters ahead of the May 26 contest. Paxton's primary performance, narrowly trailing the incumbent despite a crowded field, boosted his momentum, while Cornyn faces backlash over past positions on immigration and Biden nominees. Freshest developments include Cornyn's attacks tying Paxton to a January 2025 AG staff travel probe and Rep. Brandon Gill's endorsement for Paxton, amid lingering uncertainty over a potential Trump intervention.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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