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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul

Trabalhista 100.0%

Liberal <1%

One Nation <1%

Verdes <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Trabalhista 100.0%

Liberal <1%

One Nation <1%

Verdes <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Market icon

Trabalhista

$0 Vol.

Sim

Market icon

Liberal

$0 Vol.

Não

Market icon

One Nation

$0 Vol.

Não

Market icon

Verdes

$0 Vol.

Não

The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.Labor's commanding position in South Australia state election trader consensus stems from its landslide 2022 victory under Premier Peter Malinauskas, securing 27 of 47 lower house seats amid strong economic performance including Australia's lowest unemployment and budget surpluses. Recent polls, such as YouGov's showing Labor at 46% first preferences versus Liberals' 34%, reinforce projections of another majority government ahead of the March 2026 vote. Opposition Liberal disarray, including leadership tensions around David Speirs, bolsters this sentiment. Realistic challenges would require a major Labor scandal, economic reversal, or unified Liberal surge with policy breakthroughs—scenarios traders currently price as negligible given stable trends and no imminent catalysts.

The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/).

Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.
Volume
$0
Data de Término
Mar 21, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.Labor's commanding position in South Australia state election trader consensus stems from its landslide 2022 victory under Premier Peter Malinauskas, securing 27 of 47 lower house seats amid strong economic performance including Australia's lowest unemployment and budget surpluses. Recent polls, such as YouGov's showing Labor at 46% first preferences versus Liberals' 34%, reinforce projections of another majority government ahead of the March 2026 vote. Opposition Liberal disarray, including leadership tensions around David Speirs, bolsters this sentiment. Realistic challenges would require a major Labor scandal, economic reversal, or unified Liberal surge with policy breakthroughs—scenarios traders currently price as negligible given stable trends and no imminent catalysts.

Labor's commanding position in South Australia state election trader consensus stems from its landslide 2022 victory under Premier Peter Malinauskas, securing 27 of 47 lower house seats amid strong economic performance including Australia's lowest unemployment and budget surpluses. Recent polls, such as YouGov's showing Labor at 46% first preferences versus Liberals' 34%, reinforce projections of another majority government ahead of the March 2026 vote. Opposition Liberal disarray, including leadership tensions around David Speirs, bolsters this sentiment. Realistic challenges would require a major Labor scandal, economic reversal, or unified Liberal surge with policy breakthroughs—scenarios traders currently price as negligible given stable trends and no imminent catalysts.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Trabalhista" at 100%, followed by "Liberal" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul" is "Trabalhista" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Liberal" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição parlamentar da Austrália do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.