Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 17.8% for the 2028 presidential election, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.8%, as Donald Trump's term limits elevate Vance as the Republican heir apparent following the 2024 victory. Newsom's national fundraising and media presence position him as the Democratic frontrunner amid post-election party rebuilding and Kamala Harris's diminished prospects. Marco Rubio trails at 11.1%, buoyed by potential Senate influence. This tight clustering at the top underscores the early-cycle uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, primaries, economic trends, scandals, or endorsements likely to create separation in the path-to-victory for battleground states and Electoral College math.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$454,862,979 Vol.
$454,862,979 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$454,862,979 Vol.
$454,862,979 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 17.8% for the 2028 presidential election, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.8%, as Donald Trump's term limits elevate Vance as the Republican heir apparent following the 2024 victory. Newsom's national fundraising and media presence position him as the Democratic frontrunner amid post-election party rebuilding and Kamala Harris's diminished prospects. Marco Rubio trails at 11.1%, buoyed by potential Senate influence. This tight clustering at the top underscores the early-cycle uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, primaries, economic trends, scandals, or endorsements likely to create separation in the path-to-victory for battleground states and Electoral College math.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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