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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,459,089 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,459,089 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,516,937 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,307,168 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,436,455 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,464,763 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,082,707 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,621,460 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,536,414 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,342,067 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,666,415 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,566,774 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,480,271 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,153,399 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,950,600 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,816,521 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,711,307 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,408,676 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,104,822 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,825,040 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,149,770 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,320,459 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,478,451 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,695,106 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,486,853 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,139,678 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,867,612 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,462,468 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,655,504 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,931,548 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,581,116 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,396,109 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,635,089 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,484,349 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,270,081 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,208,795 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,313,672 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,399,196 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% as trader consensus views him as the Republican frontrunner, bolstered by dominant GOP primary polls and his role as heir apparent amid President Trump's term limits, though his probabilities have recently declined amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.3%, gaining from book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire and Democratic field disarray post-2024, signaling trader bets on his national fundraising prowess. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects a surge from March diplomatic maneuvers on Iran and Venezuela, elevating his profile in Trump succession talks and drawing GOP donor interest. With no primaries until 2028 and 2026 midterms looming, the fragmented fields keep the race tight; separations could emerge from midterm outcomes, endorsements, scandals, or cabinet successes.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,459,089
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% as trader consensus views him as the Republican frontrunner, bolstered by dominant GOP primary polls and his role as heir apparent amid President Trump's term limits, though his probabilities have recently declined amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.3%, gaining from book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire and Democratic field disarray post-2024, signaling trader bets on his national fundraising prowess. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects a surge from March diplomatic maneuvers on Iran and Venezuela, elevating his profile in Trump succession talks and drawing GOP donor interest. With no primaries until 2028 and 2026 midterms looming, the fragmented fields keep the race tight; separations could emerge from midterm outcomes, endorsements, scandals, or cabinet successes.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,459,089
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" has generated $480.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.