Market icon
Política·Trump

NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial

Market icon
Política·Trump

NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial

Analilia Mejia 93.1%

Alan Bond 2.1%

Joe Hathaway 1.6%

Polymarket
NOVO

Analilia Mejia 93.1%

Alan Bond 2.1%

Joe Hathaway 1.6%

Polymarket
NOVO

Analilia Mejia

$1,710 Vol.

93%

Alan Bond

$1,151 Vol.

2%

Joe Hathaway

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.Analilia Mejia's commanding 97.7% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election stems from the district's strong Democratic lean—Kamala Harris won by 9 points in 2024—and her dominant performance in the February 5 Democratic primary, where she upset former Rep. Tom Malinowski amid heavy outside spending. A March internal poll showed Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 53%-36%, reinforced by strong early vote-by-mail returns favoring Democrats in initial precincts reported this week. Recent debates highlighted clashes over Trump policies and Israel, but traders see little path for Hathaway or independent Alan Bond in this low-turnout special. Early voting begins April 6, with Election Day on April 16; a GOP turnout surge or Mejia scandal could shift odds, though barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volume
$2,861
Data de Término
16 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.Analilia Mejia's commanding 97.7% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election stems from the district's strong Democratic lean—Kamala Harris won by 9 points in 2024—and her dominant performance in the February 5 Democratic primary, where she upset former Rep. Tom Malinowski amid heavy outside spending. A March internal poll showed Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 53%-36%, reinforced by strong early vote-by-mail returns favoring Democrats in initial precincts reported this week. Recent debates highlighted clashes over Trump policies and Israel, but traders see little path for Hathaway or independent Alan Bond in this low-turnout special. Early voting begins April 6, with Election Day on April 16; a GOP turnout surge or Mejia scandal could shift odds, though barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volume
$2,861
Data de Término
16 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Analilia Mejia" at 93%, followed by "Alan Bond" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial" is "Analilia Mejia" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alan Bond" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NJ-11 Vencedor da Eleição Especial" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.