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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal

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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal

Balendra “Balen” Shah 100.0%

KP Sharma Oli <1%

Madhav Kumar Nepal <1%

Rabi Lamichhane <1%

Polymarket

$2,153,070 Vol.

Balendra “Balen” Shah 100.0%

KP Sharma Oli <1%

Madhav Kumar Nepal <1%

Rabi Lamichhane <1%

Polymarket

$2,153,070 Vol.

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KP Sharma Oli

$167,294 Vol.

Não

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Madhav Kumar Nepal

$30,202 Vol.

Não

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Rabi Lamichhane

$117,640 Vol.

Não

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Gagan Kumar Thapa

$210,463 Vol.

Não

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Balendra “Balen” Shah

$1,279,701 Vol.

Sim

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Prachanda

$229,809 Vol.

Não

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Kulman Ghising

$47,419 Vol.

Não

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Harka Sampang

$44,448 Vol.

Não

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Sushila Karki

$26,094 Vol.

Não

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Balendra “Balen” Shah at 100% implied probability as Nepal's next Prime Minister, reflecting his meteoric rise as Kathmandu's independent mayor amid chronic political instability marked by frequent no-confidence votes and coalition collapses. In the past 30 days, KP Sharma Oli's UML-Nepali Congress coalition has faced internal tensions following his July displacement of Prachanda, fueling public disillusionment with establishment figures like Oli, Prachanda, Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa. Shah's anti-corruption platform and youth appeal have driven massive rallies and social media momentum, positioning him as the reformist alternative despite lacking a parliamentary seat—potentially resolvable via by-election or party realignment. Scenarios challenging this include coalition reconciliation, snap elections bolstering incumbents, or procedural blocks in parliament.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Balendra “Balen” Shah at 100% implied probability as Nepal's next Prime Minister, reflecting his meteoric rise as Kathmandu's independent mayor amid chronic political instability marked by frequent no-confidence votes and coalition collapses. In the past 30 days, KP Sharma Oli's UML-Nepali Congress coalition has faced internal tensions following his July displacement of Prachanda, fueling public disillusionment with establishment figures like Oli, Prachanda, Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa. Shah's anti-corruption platform and youth appeal have driven massive rallies and social media momentum, positioning him as the reformist alternative despite lacking a parliamentary seat—potentially resolvable via by-election or party realignment. Scenarios challenging this include coalition reconciliation, snap elections bolstering incumbents, or procedural blocks in parliament.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Balendra “Balen” Shah at 100% implied probability as Nepal's next Prime Minister, reflecting his meteoric rise as Kathmandu's independent mayor amid chronic political instability marked by frequent no-confidence votes and coalition collapses. In the past 30 days, KP Sharma Oli's UML-Nepali Congress coalition has faced internal tensions following his July displacement of Prachanda, fueling public disillusionment with establishment figures like Oli, Prachanda, Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa. Shah's anti-corruption platform and youth appeal have driven massive rallies and social media momentum, positioning him as the reformist alternative despite lacking a parliamentary seat—potentially resolvable via by-election or party realignment. Scenarios challenging this include coalition reconciliation, snap elections bolstering incumbents, or procedural blocks in parliament.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Balendra “Balen” Shah at 100% implied probability as Nepal's next Prime Minister, reflecting his meteoric rise as Kathmandu's independent mayor amid chronic political instability marked by frequent no-confidence votes and coalition collapses. In the past 30 days, KP Sharma Oli's UML-Nepali Congress coalition has faced internal tensions following his July displacement of Prachanda, fueling public disillusionment with establishment figures like Oli, Prachanda, Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa. Shah's anti-corruption platform and youth appeal have driven massive rallies and social media momentum, positioning him as the reformist alternative despite lacking a parliamentary seat—potentially resolvable via by-election or party realignment. Scenarios challenging this include coalition reconciliation, snap elections bolstering incumbents, or procedural blocks in parliament.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Balendra “Balen” Shah" at 100%, followed by "KP Sharma Oli" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal" is "Balendra “Balen” Shah" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "KP Sharma Oli" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo Primeiro-Ministro do Nepal" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.