Jordan Bardella commands trader consensus at 24.5% for the 2027 French presidential election, edging Édouard Philippe's 20.5% on National Rally's (RN) strong second-place finish in June's snap legislative elections despite the resulting hung parliament and repeated no-confidence votes. Philippe gains from his former prime minister experience and centrist positioning amid coalition fragility, highlighted by Michel Barnier's ouster on December 4 and François Bayrou's shaky appointment as prime minister on December 13. The tight race reflects fragmented fields across RN, Republicans, left-wing alliances like New Popular Front, and Macron's lame-duck constraints under term limits, with no dominant bloc. Shifts could arise from stable government formation, fresh polls, Le Pen's legal proceedings, or economic pressures influencing the two-round runoff dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPróximas eleições presidenciais francesas
Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,240,005 Vol.
$19,240,005 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

David Lisnard
4%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,240,005 Vol.
$19,240,005 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

David Lisnard
4%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jordan Bardella commands trader consensus at 24.5% for the 2027 French presidential election, edging Édouard Philippe's 20.5% on National Rally's (RN) strong second-place finish in June's snap legislative elections despite the resulting hung parliament and repeated no-confidence votes. Philippe gains from his former prime minister experience and centrist positioning amid coalition fragility, highlighted by Michel Barnier's ouster on December 4 and François Bayrou's shaky appointment as prime minister on December 13. The tight race reflects fragmented fields across RN, Republicans, left-wing alliances like New Popular Front, and Macron's lame-duck constraints under term limits, with no dominant bloc. Shifts could arise from stable government formation, fresh polls, Le Pen's legal proceedings, or economic pressures influencing the two-round runoff dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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