Luis Antonio Revilla leads Polymarket trader consensus at 48.8% implied probability to win the La Paz Governor election, propelled by recent polls showing his Comunidad Ciudadana alliance commanding 45-50% support among urban voters disillusioned with MAS governance amid Bolivia's economic woes and party infighting between President Arce and Evo Morales factions. MAS candidate René Yahuasi Calamani trails at 34.8%, undercut by internal divisions and weaker rural mobilization, while evangelical-backed Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer holds third at 27.1% on niche appeal. A fragmented field of 15 contenders, including low-polling Santos Quispe Quispe, favors Revilla in plurality voting, though upcoming campaign rallies and final surveys could tip this tight race before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para governador de La Paz (Bolívia)
Vencedor da eleição para governador de La Paz (Bolívia)
Luis Antonio Revilla 66.4%
Germán Riveros 18.7%
Santos Quispe Quispe 8.9%
Felix Patzi 6.7%
$14,399 Vol.
$14,399 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
49%
Germán Riveros
19%
Santos Quispe Quispe
9%
Felix Patzi
7%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
4%
Rafael Quispe Flores
3%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Richard Andrés Gómez
9%
Gualberto Cusi
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Fidel Chura
12%
René Yahuasi Calamani
35%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
27%
Luis Antonio Revilla 66.4%
Germán Riveros 18.7%
Santos Quispe Quispe 8.9%
Felix Patzi 6.7%
$14,399 Vol.
$14,399 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
49%
Germán Riveros
19%
Santos Quispe Quispe
9%
Felix Patzi
7%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
4%
Rafael Quispe Flores
3%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Richard Andrés Gómez
9%
Gualberto Cusi
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Fidel Chura
12%
René Yahuasi Calamani
35%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
27%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Luis Antonio Revilla leads Polymarket trader consensus at 48.8% implied probability to win the La Paz Governor election, propelled by recent polls showing his Comunidad Ciudadana alliance commanding 45-50% support among urban voters disillusioned with MAS governance amid Bolivia's economic woes and party infighting between President Arce and Evo Morales factions. MAS candidate René Yahuasi Calamani trails at 34.8%, undercut by internal divisions and weaker rural mobilization, while evangelical-backed Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer holds third at 27.1% on niche appeal. A fragmented field of 15 contenders, including low-polling Santos Quispe Quispe, favors Revilla in plurality voting, though upcoming campaign rallies and final surveys could tip this tight race before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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