Iran's ongoing ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh retaliatory strikes reported on April 1 targeting central areas amid air raid sirens in Tel Aviv, anchor trader consensus in this market amid the month-long 2026 US-Israel-Iran war sparked by joint strikes on February 28 against Tehran's military infrastructure. Iran has launched multiple daily waves, deploying cluster munitions and hitting populated zones like Jerusalem suburbs, while Israel vows intensified counterstrikes on missile sites and leadership. Diplomatic signals remain dim, with Tehran rejecting a US 15-point peace proposal; traders eye potential de-escalation via Trump administration talks or further escalation from Hezbollah coordination and Strait of Hormuz tensions as key market movers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$14,603 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 1
93%
April 2
89%
April 3
88%
April 4
83%
April 5
87%
April 6
84%
April 7
83%
April 8
79%
April 9
80%
April 10
79%
$14,603 Vol.
April 1
$8,857 Vol.
93%
April 2
$2,001 Vol.
89%
April 3
$890 Vol.
88%
April 4
$188 Vol.
83%
April 5
$572 Vol.
87%
April 6
$125 Vol.
84%
April 7
$459 Vol.
83%
April 8
$409 Vol.
79%
April 9
$663 Vol.
80%
April 10
$441 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's ongoing ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh retaliatory strikes reported on April 1 targeting central areas amid air raid sirens in Tel Aviv, anchor trader consensus in this market amid the month-long 2026 US-Israel-Iran war sparked by joint strikes on February 28 against Tehran's military infrastructure. Iran has launched multiple daily waves, deploying cluster munitions and hitting populated zones like Jerusalem suburbs, while Israel vows intensified counterstrikes on missile sites and leadership. Diplomatic signals remain dim, with Tehran rejecting a US 15-point peace proposal; traders eye potential de-escalation via Trump administration talks or further escalation from Hezbollah coordination and Strait of Hormuz tensions as key market movers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$14,603Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's ongoing ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh retaliatory strikes reported on April 1 targeting central areas amid air raid sirens in Tel Aviv, anchor trader consensus in this market amid the month-long 2026 US-Israel-Iran war sparked by joint strikes on February 28 against Tehran's military infrastructure. Iran has launched multiple daily waves, deploying cluster munitions and hitting populated zones like Jerusalem suburbs, while Israel vows intensified counterstrikes on missile sites and leadership. Diplomatic signals remain dim, with Tehran rejecting a US 15-point peace proposal; traders eye potential de-escalation via Trump administration talks or further escalation from Hezbollah coordination and Strait of Hormuz tensions as key market movers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$14,603Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ongoing ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh retaliatory strikes reported on April 1 targeting central areas amid air raid sirens in Tel Aviv, anchor trader consensus in this market amid the month-long 2026 US-Israel-Iran war sparked by joint strikes on February 28 against Tehran's military infrastructure. Iran has launched multiple daily waves, deploying cluster munitions and hitting populated zones like Jerusalem suburbs, while Israel vows intensified counterstrikes on missile sites and leadership. Diplomatic signals remain dim, with Tehran rejecting a US 15-point peace proposal; traders eye potential de-escalation via Trump administration talks or further escalation from Hezbollah coordination and Strait of Hormuz tensions as key market movers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions