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Política·Primárias

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Política·Primárias

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Jim Baird 91%

Craig Haggard 11%

John Piper <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Jim Baird 91%

Craig Haggard 11%

John Piper <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Jim Baird

$0 Vol.

72%

Craig Haggard

$277 Vol.

11%

John Piper

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds 71% trader consensus as the IN-04 Republican primary winner, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Republican district, dominant fundraising with over $450,000 cash-on-hand reported in Q1 2024 FEC filings, and endorsements from House GOP leadership and local party chairs. Challenger Craig Haggard garners 11% on grassroots momentum from conservative activists upset with Baird's support for recent omnibus spending bills, though recent polls like the April Howey Politics Indiana survey show Baird leading 52%-15%. John Piper lingers at 0.7% without notable traction. No major catalysts emerged in the past week ahead of the May 7 primary, solidifying Baird's frontrunner status.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$277
Data de Término
May 5, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds 71% trader consensus as the IN-04 Republican primary winner, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Republican district, dominant fundraising with over $450,000 cash-on-hand reported in Q1 2024 FEC filings, and endorsements from House GOP leadership and local party chairs. Challenger Craig Haggard garners 11% on grassroots momentum from conservative activists upset with Baird's support for recent omnibus spending bills, though recent polls like the April Howey Politics Indiana survey show Baird leading 52%-15%. John Piper lingers at 0.7% without notable traction. No major catalysts emerged in the past week ahead of the May 7 primary, solidifying Baird's frontrunner status.

Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird holds 71% trader consensus as the IN-04 Republican primary winner, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Republican district, dominant fundraising with over $450,000 cash-on-hand reported in Q1 2024 FEC filings, and endorsements from House GOP leadership and local party chairs. Challenger Craig Haggard garners 11% on grassroots momentum from conservative activists upset with Baird's support for recent omnibus spending bills, though recent polls like the April Howey Politics Indiana survey show Baird leading 52%-15%. John Piper lingers at 0.7% without notable traction. No major catalysts emerged in the past week ahead of the May 7 primary, solidifying Baird's frontrunner status.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jim Baird" at 72%, followed by "Craig Haggard" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jim Baird" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Craig Haggard" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.