Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive the razor-thin odds favoring 16°C (28%) over 15°C (25.5%) and 17°C (24.5%) for Shanghai's March 27 high, projecting peaks in the 15-17°C range amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. These closely matched outcomes hinge on subtle differences in low-level moisture advection—favoring cooler 15°C if marine stratus persists, or warmer 17°C with clearer skies and urban heat island amplification. Historical late-March averages hover at 15.8°C (1981-2010 baseline), but recent jet stream stabilization reduces extremes, with China Meteorological Administration hourly updates poised to refine trader consensus before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Xangai em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Xangai em 27 de março?
16°C 28%
15°C 25%
17°C 24%
14°C 13%
11°C ou menos
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
13%
15°C
25%
16°C
28%
17°C
24%
18°C
11%
19°C
9%
20°C
3%
21°C ou mais
2%
16°C 28%
15°C 25%
17°C 24%
14°C 13%
11°C ou menos
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
13%
15°C
25%
16°C
28%
17°C
24%
18°C
11%
19°C
9%
20°C
3%
21°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive the razor-thin odds favoring 16°C (28%) over 15°C (25.5%) and 17°C (24.5%) for Shanghai's March 27 high, projecting peaks in the 15-17°C range amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. These closely matched outcomes hinge on subtle differences in low-level moisture advection—favoring cooler 15°C if marine stratus persists, or warmer 17°C with clearer skies and urban heat island amplification. Historical late-March averages hover at 15.8°C (1981-2010 baseline), but recent jet stream stabilization reduces extremes, with China Meteorological Administration hourly updates poised to refine trader consensus before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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