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Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19

Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19

Catalina Lauf 43%

Madison Cawthorn 17.0%

Jim Oberweis 8.5%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,151 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 43%

Madison Cawthorn 17.0%

Jim Oberweis 8.5%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,151 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,413 Vol.

43%

Madison Cawthorn

$701 Vol.

17%

Jim Oberweis

$2,037 Vol.

9%

Jim Schwartzel

$0 Vol.

20%

Bob Rommel

$0 Vol.

2%

Spencer Roach

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary—an open race in a safe R+14 seat after Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid—positions Catalina Lauf as the implied frontrunner at 42.5%, driven by her Trump administration service at Commerce and recent emphasis on America First priorities in March forums, appealing to the district's MAGA base despite modest fundraising ($434K raised end-2025). Jim Schwartzel follows at 20.5% on local roots as a Fort Myers broadcaster, robust cash on hand ($1.28M), and self-funding edge. Madison Cawthorn's 16.5% reflects name recognition and a January withdrawal endorsement from John Fratto, tempered by legal controversies. Jim Oberweis trails at 8.6% despite top receipts ($3.3M, mostly loans), hindered by Illinois outsider status. With October polling showing 67% undecided and no Trump endorsement yet, the crowded field awaits June 12 filing deadline ahead of the August 18 primary.

Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary—an open race in a safe R+14 seat after Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid—positions Catalina Lauf as the implied frontrunner at 42.5%, driven by her Trump administration service at Commerce and recent emphasis on America First priorities in March forums, appealing to the district's MAGA base despite modest fundraising ($434K raised end-2025). Jim Schwartzel follows at 20.5% on local roots as a Fort Myers broadcaster, robust cash on hand ($1.28M), and self-funding edge. Madison Cawthorn's 16.5% reflects name recognition and a January withdrawal endorsement from John Fratto, tempered by legal controversies. Jim Oberweis trails at 8.6% despite top receipts ($3.3M, mostly loans), hindered by Illinois outsider status. With October polling showing 67% undecided and no Trump endorsement yet, the crowded field awaits June 12 filing deadline ahead of the August 18 primary.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary—an open race in a safe R+14 seat after Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid—positions Catalina Lauf as the implied frontrunner at 42.5%, driven by her Trump administration service at Commerce and recent emphasis on America First priorities in March forums, appealing to the district's MAGA base despite modest fundraising ($434K raised end-2025). Jim Schwartzel follows at 20.5% on local roots as a Fort Myers broadcaster, robust cash on hand ($1.28M), and self-funding edge. Madison Cawthorn's 16.5% reflects name recognition and a January withdrawal endorsement from John Fratto, tempered by legal controversies. Jim Oberweis trails at 8.6% despite top receipts ($3.3M, mostly loans), hindered by Illinois outsider status. With October polling showing 67% undecided and no Trump endorsement yet, the crowded field awaits June 12 filing deadline ahead of the August 18 primary.

Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary—an open race in a safe R+14 seat after Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid—positions Catalina Lauf as the implied frontrunner at 42.5%, driven by her Trump administration service at Commerce and recent emphasis on America First priorities in March forums, appealing to the district's MAGA base despite modest fundraising ($434K raised end-2025). Jim Schwartzel follows at 20.5% on local roots as a Fort Myers broadcaster, robust cash on hand ($1.28M), and self-funding edge. Madison Cawthorn's 16.5% reflects name recognition and a January withdrawal endorsement from John Fratto, tempered by legal controversies. Jim Oberweis trails at 8.6% despite top receipts ($3.3M, mostly loans), hindered by Illinois outsider status. With October polling showing 67% undecided and no Trump endorsement yet, the crowded field awaits June 12 filing deadline ahead of the August 18 primary.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 43%, followed by "Jim Schwartzel" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" has generated $18.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" is "Catalina Lauf" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.