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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Candidato presidencial democrata 2028

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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Candidato presidencial democrata 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 6.2%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$920,237,125 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 6.2%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$920,237,125 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$15,445,807 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,006,526 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,662,995 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,427,791 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,682,915 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,250,673 Vol.

4%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,415,069 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,389,382 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,675,889 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$5,904,381 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,300,264 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,459,390 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,316,918 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,082,711 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$6,902,755 Vol.

2%

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Oprah Winfrey

$42,289,865 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$20,275,211 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,247,185 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$10,906,300 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$10,780,467 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,348,131 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,289,438 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,490,868 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$26,926,841 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$31,808,678 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,529,688 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,138,589 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,320,136 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,781,391 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,184,156 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$34,915,070 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$36,831,723 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,107,291 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,694,135 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,355,857 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,011,491 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$36,999,203 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$24,936,259 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$30,742,138 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,130,626 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,152,666 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,149,502 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$23,861,301 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,150,339 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.1% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his national media presence, executive experience, and fundraising strength amid post-2024 election repositioning as a party standard-bearer against the incoming Trump administration. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8.3%, appealing to progressive and young voters through viral social media and policy advocacy, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 6.2% reflects his battleground state victories and bipartisan appeal. Kamala Harris lags at 4.5% post her electoral defeat, with the wide-open field differentiating contenders by incumbency status, swing-state records, and ideological lanes. Consolidation may hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, key endorsements from Biden-era donors, or polling surges in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$920,237,125
Data de Término
Nov 7, 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.1% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his national media presence, executive experience, and fundraising strength amid post-2024 election repositioning as a party standard-bearer against the incoming Trump administration. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8.3%, appealing to progressive and young voters through viral social media and policy advocacy, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 6.2% reflects his battleground state victories and bipartisan appeal. Kamala Harris lags at 4.5% post her electoral defeat, with the wide-open field differentiating contenders by incumbency status, swing-state records, and ideological lanes. Consolidation may hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, key endorsements from Biden-era donors, or polling surges in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.1% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his national media presence, executive experience, and fundraising strength amid post-2024 election repositioning as a party standard-bearer against the incoming Trump administration. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8.3%, appealing to progressive and young voters through viral social media and policy advocacy, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 6.2% reflects his battleground state victories and bipartisan appeal. Kamala Harris lags at 4.5% post her electoral defeat, with the wide-open field differentiating contenders by incumbency status, swing-state records, and ideological lanes. Consolidation may hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, key endorsements from Biden-era donors, or polling surges in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" has generated $920.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.