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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Candidato presidencial democrata 2028

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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Candidato presidencial democrata 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.9%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$920,812,946 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.9%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$920,812,946 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$15,488,929 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,008,022 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,665,122 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,468,639 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,728,652 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,251,453 Vol.

4%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,435,469 Vol.

3%

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Andy Beshear

$5,905,300 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,390,282 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,681,485 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,301,895 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,459,390 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,322,340 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,082,711 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$6,908,573 Vol.

2%

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Oprah Winfrey

$42,300,866 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$20,282,016 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,248,007 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$10,906,411 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$10,780,675 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,496,339 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,355,324 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,296,640 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$26,938,896 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$31,818,842 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,539,553 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,141,687 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,801,801 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,202,266 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$34,926,748 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,334,570 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$36,838,325 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,113,792 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,015,991 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,010,219 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$24,937,085 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$30,748,582 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,712,813 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,474,634 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,135,363 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,159,807 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,152,355 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$23,865,179 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,183,314 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination following Kamala Harris's 2024 general election loss, which has shattered any carryover frontrunner status and opened a fragmented primary field. Newsom's edge stems from his executive experience as California governor, robust national fundraising network, and high-profile anti-Trump rhetoric in recent post-election speeches and media appearances, differentiating him from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortor's progressive grassroots appeal and youth, or Jon Ossoff's swing-state Senate incumbency in Georgia. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, early primary polling trends, key endorsements from party leaders, and fundraising tallies, with upcoming gubernatorial races in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan testing Shapiro and Whitmer's viability amid economic pressures and policy shifts under the incoming administration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$920,812,946
Data de Término
Nov 7, 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination following Kamala Harris's 2024 general election loss, which has shattered any carryover frontrunner status and opened a fragmented primary field. Newsom's edge stems from his executive experience as California governor, robust national fundraising network, and high-profile anti-Trump rhetoric in recent post-election speeches and media appearances, differentiating him from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortor's progressive grassroots appeal and youth, or Jon Ossoff's swing-state Senate incumbency in Georgia. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, early primary polling trends, key endorsements from party leaders, and fundraising tallies, with upcoming gubernatorial races in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan testing Shapiro and Whitmer's viability amid economic pressures and policy shifts under the incoming administration.

Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination following Kamala Harris's 2024 general election loss, which has shattered any carryover frontrunner status and opened a fragmented primary field. Newsom's edge stems from his executive experience as California governor, robust national fundraising network, and high-profile anti-Trump rhetoric in recent post-election speeches and media appearances, differentiating him from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortor's progressive grassroots appeal and youth, or Jon Ossoff's swing-state Senate incumbency in Georgia. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, early primary polling trends, key endorsements from party leaders, and fundraising tallies, with upcoming gubernatorial races in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan testing Shapiro and Whitmer's viability amid economic pressures and policy shifts under the incoming administration.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" has generated $920.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial democrata 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.