Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability following Kamala Harris's 2024 election defeat, which has scattered support in a wide-open primary field amid Democratic soul-searching over strategy and messaging. Newsom's edge stems from his executive experience as California governor—term-limited in 2026—and high-profile special legislative session last week to codify abortion rights, climate protections, and civil liberties against anticipated Trump administration rollbacks, positioning him as a proactive national figure. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% draws progressive enthusiasm through sharp post-election social media commentary, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects swing-state Georgia incumbency appeal ahead of his 2026 reelection. Consolidation may pivot on 2026 midterm results for battleground governors and senators, early fundraising tallies, and polling in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCandidato presidencial democrata 2028
Candidato presidencial democrata 2028
Gavin Newsom 24.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.2%
Kamala Harris 4.5%
$916,807,016 Vol.
$916,807,016 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Mark Kelly
2%

Andy Beshear
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

James Talarico
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Ro Khanna
2%

Michelle Obama
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Cory Booker
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

MrBeast
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

George Clooney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
Gavin Newsom 24.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.2%
Kamala Harris 4.5%
$916,807,016 Vol.
$916,807,016 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Mark Kelly
2%

Andy Beshear
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

James Talarico
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Ro Khanna
2%

Michelle Obama
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Cory Booker
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

MrBeast
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

George Clooney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability following Kamala Harris's 2024 election defeat, which has scattered support in a wide-open primary field amid Democratic soul-searching over strategy and messaging. Newsom's edge stems from his executive experience as California governor—term-limited in 2026—and high-profile special legislative session last week to codify abortion rights, climate protections, and civil liberties against anticipated Trump administration rollbacks, positioning him as a proactive national figure. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% draws progressive enthusiasm through sharp post-election social media commentary, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects swing-state Georgia incumbency appeal ahead of his 2026 reelection. Consolidation may pivot on 2026 midterm results for battleground governors and senators, early fundraising tallies, and polling in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions