Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Name: Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia
Start: 2025-10-09T23:36:09.952Z
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia — Discussão

10G · 2025-10-09T23:36:09.952Z

Discussão sobre Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia. Os traders compartilham insights e previsões no Polymarket.

Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Eric Swalwell 62%

Tom Steyer 13.5%

Matt Mahan 8%

Steve Hilton 6.3%

$5,804,932 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Eric Swalwell

$89,891 Vol.

62%

Tom Steyer

$2,114,170 Vol.

14%

Matt Mahan

$162,414 Vol.

Steve Hilton

$664,460 Vol.

Elaine Culotti

$51,134 Vol.

Chad Bianco

$606,601 Vol.

Katie Porter

$577,591 Vol.

Butch Ware

$77,476 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$290,420 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$112,912 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$86,840 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$52,160 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$51,503 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$69,204 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$63,493 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$50,186 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$180,103 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$18,343 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$128,725 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$149,970 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$29,499 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$82,988 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$98,176 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell 62%

Tom Steyer 13.5%

Matt Mahan 8%

Steve Hilton 6.3%

$5,804,932 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Eric Swalwell

$89,891 Vol.

62%

Tom Steyer

$2,114,170 Vol.

14%

Matt Mahan

$162,414 Vol.

Steve Hilton

$664,460 Vol.

Elaine Culotti

$51,134 Vol.

Chad Bianco

$606,601 Vol.

Katie Porter

$577,591 Vol.

Butch Ware

$77,476 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$290,420 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$112,912 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$86,840 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$52,160 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$51,503 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$69,204 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$63,493 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$50,186 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$180,103 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$18,343 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$128,725 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$149,970 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$29,499 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$82,988 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$98,176 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell as the 2026 California governor election winner at 61.5%, driven by his strong Bay Area base, national profile from high-visibility congressional roles, and perceived fundraising edge in an open Democratic primary field following Gov. Gavin Newsom's term limit. Billionaire Tom Steyer trails at 13.6%, buoyed by his self-funding capacity from past statewide bids, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (8%) and Fox News commentator Steve Hilton (6.3%) draw support from local leadership and conservative outsider appeal, respectively. Recent announcements like Rep. Katie Porter's October 3 campaign launch have yet to shift odds significantly, reflecting trader skepticism amid a crowded field and the June 2026 primary still 20 months away; upcoming candidate filings and early polls could alter dynamics.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 26, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 62%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" has generated $5.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is "Eric Swalwell" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $5.8 million traded on “Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 62¢ for "Eric Swalwell" in the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 62% chance that "Eric Swalwell" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 62¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 38¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Nov 3, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market has an active community of 12 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (12)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

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How do I trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What are the current odds for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

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What does a price of 62¢ for "Eric Swalwell" mean?

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What are traders saying about "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

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