Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deep-blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus assigning over 94% implied probability to a Democratic Party win on November 3. The district's D+39 partisan voting index and 84.5% Democratic presidential vote in 2024 reflect overwhelming historical margins, including Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory. With Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrawn, the June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, likely advancing two Democrats to the general election. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios like a late GOP surge, primary upset, or scandal could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$11,700 Vol.
$11,700 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$11,700 Vol.
$11,700 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,875 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$4,825 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deep-blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus assigning over 94% implied probability to a Democratic Party win on November 3. The district's D+39 partisan voting index and 84.5% Democratic presidential vote in 2024 reflect overwhelming historical margins, including Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory. With Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrawn, the June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, likely advancing two Democrats to the general election. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios like a late GOP surge, primary upset, or scandal could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,700Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deep-blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus assigning over 94% implied probability to a Democratic Party win on November 3. The district's D+39 partisan voting index and 84.5% Democratic presidential vote in 2024 reflect overwhelming historical margins, including Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory. With Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrawn, the June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, likely advancing two Democrats to the general election. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios like a late GOP surge, primary upset, or scandal could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,700Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deep-blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus assigning over 94% implied probability to a Democratic Party win on November 3. The district's D+39 partisan voting index and 84.5% Democratic presidential vote in 2024 reflect overwhelming historical margins, including Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory. With Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrawn, the June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, likely advancing two Democrats to the general election. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios like a late GOP surge, primary upset, or scandal could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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