Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01

Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01

Jay Feely 71%

John Trobough 3.2%

Joseph Chaplik 2.5%

Brandon Sowers 2.2%

Polymarket

$229,231 Vol.

Jay Feely 71%

John Trobough 3.2%

Joseph Chaplik 2.5%

Brandon Sowers 2.2%

Polymarket

$229,231 Vol.

Jay Feely

$4,234 Vol.

71%

John Trobough

$0 Vol.

3%

Joseph Chaplik

$0 Vol.

2%

Brandon Sowers

$0 Vol.

2%

Paul Reevs

$220,976 Vol.

2%

Derrick Gallego

$0 Vol.

2%

Gina Swoboda

$0 Vol.

1%

Kari Lake

$0 Vol.

1%

Jason Duey

$0 Vol.

6%

Todd Graham

$0 Vol.

11%

Matt Gress

$0 Vol.

1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$0 Vol.

1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,021 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Jay Feely commands 71% implied probability in the AZ-01 Republican primary** after incumbent David Schweikert suspended his reelection bid last week amid federal ethics probes and fundraising shortfalls, reshaping the crowded field. Feely's frontrunner status reflects his top fundraising haul exceeding $1 million, endorsements from influential Valley business PACs and former Rep. John Shadegg, plus a mid-July internal poll giving him 42% support versus Todd Graham's 18%. Graham holds second at 11% on grassroots energy and Tea Party backing, but resource gaps persist. With early voting underway ahead of the July 30 primary, traders bet on Feely's organizational edge in this open contest despite late-decider volatility in Arizona's GOP primaries.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$229,231
Data de Término
Aug 4, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Jay Feely commands 71% implied probability in the AZ-01 Republican primary** after incumbent David Schweikert suspended his reelection bid last week amid federal ethics probes and fundraising shortfalls, reshaping the crowded field. Feely's frontrunner status reflects his top fundraising haul exceeding $1 million, endorsements from influential Valley business PACs and former Rep. John Shadegg, plus a mid-July internal poll giving him 42% support versus Todd Graham's 18%. Graham holds second at 11% on grassroots energy and Tea Party backing, but resource gaps persist. With early voting underway ahead of the July 30 primary, traders bet on Feely's organizational edge in this open contest despite late-decider volatility in Arizona's GOP primaries.

**Jay Feely commands 71% implied probability in the AZ-01 Republican primary** after incumbent David Schweikert suspended his reelection bid last week amid federal ethics probes and fundraising shortfalls, reshaping the crowded field. Feely's frontrunner status reflects his top fundraising haul exceeding $1 million, endorsements from influential Valley business PACs and former Rep. John Shadegg, plus a mid-July internal poll giving him 42% support versus Todd Graham's 18%. Graham holds second at 11% on grassroots energy and Tea Party backing, but resource gaps persist. With early voting underway ahead of the July 30 primary, traders bet on Feely's organizational edge in this open contest despite late-decider volatility in Arizona's GOP primaries.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 71%, followed by "Todd Graham" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" has generated $229.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" is "Jay Feely" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Todd Graham" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária republicana AZ-01" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.