Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) traders command a 93% implied probability of winning the Assam Legislative Assembly election, driven by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's robust incumbency advantage and the NDA coalition's dominance, including allies like Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Recent pre-poll surveys from September 2024 project BJP securing over 70 seats in the 126-member house, fueled by successful welfare schemes such as Orunodoi cash transfers, flood mitigation efforts, and infrastructure projects amid steady economic growth. Opposition remains fragmented, with Indian National Congress (INC) facing leadership disputes and diminished AIUDF influence post-delimitation. No major developments in the past week, but scenarios like a unified opposition front, economic downturn, or governance scandals could challenge this lead ahead of the expected 2026 polls.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Assam
Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Assam
BJP 93%
INC 3.6%
BPF 1.3%
AGP 1.0%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
BJP
93%
INC
4%
BPF
1%
AGP
1%
CPI(M)
1%
NCP
1%
NPEP
1%
CPI
1%
AITC
1%
AIUDF
<1%
BJP 93%
INC 3.6%
BPF 1.3%
AGP 1.0%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
BJP
$1,990 Vol.
93%
INC
$1,236 Vol.
4%
BPF
$1,005 Vol.
1%
AGP
$602 Vol.
1%
CPI(M)
$663 Vol.
1%
NCP
$724 Vol.
1%
NPEP
$857 Vol.
1%
CPI
$801 Vol.
1%
AITC
$738 Vol.
1%
AIUDF
$892 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) traders command a 93% implied probability of winning the Assam Legislative Assembly election, driven by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's robust incumbency advantage and the NDA coalition's dominance, including allies like Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Recent pre-poll surveys from September 2024 project BJP securing over 70 seats in the 126-member house, fueled by successful welfare schemes such as Orunodoi cash transfers, flood mitigation efforts, and infrastructure projects amid steady economic growth. Opposition remains fragmented, with Indian National Congress (INC) facing leadership disputes and diminished AIUDF influence post-delimitation. No major developments in the past week, but scenarios like a unified opposition front, economic downturn, or governance scandals could challenge this lead ahead of the expected 2026 polls.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$9,508Data de Término
Apr 9, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) traders command a 93% implied probability of winning the Assam Legislative Assembly election, driven by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's robust incumbency advantage and the NDA coalition's dominance, including allies like Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Recent pre-poll surveys from September 2024 project BJP securing over 70 seats in the 126-member house, fueled by successful welfare schemes such as Orunodoi cash transfers, flood mitigation efforts, and infrastructure projects amid steady economic growth. Opposition remains fragmented, with Indian National Congress (INC) facing leadership disputes and diminished AIUDF influence post-delimitation. No major developments in the past week, but scenarios like a unified opposition front, economic downturn, or governance scandals could challenge this lead ahead of the expected 2026 polls.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Volume
$9,508Data de Término
Apr 9, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) traders command a 93% implied probability of winning the Assam Legislative Assembly election, driven by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's robust incumbency advantage and the NDA coalition's dominance, including allies like Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Recent pre-poll surveys from September 2024 project BJP securing over 70 seats in the 126-member house, fueled by successful welfare schemes such as Orunodoi cash transfers, flood mitigation efforts, and infrastructure projects amid steady economic growth. Opposition remains fragmented, with Indian National Congress (INC) facing leadership disputes and diminished AIUDF influence post-delimitation. No major developments in the past week, but scenarios like a unified opposition front, economic downturn, or governance scandals could challenge this lead ahead of the expected 2026 polls.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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