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UN predictions & odds

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Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

73%

Rafael Grossi

$2.4K Vol.

$31.2K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

António Guterres out by December 31?

António Guterres out by December 31?

26%

$409 Vol.

$3.7K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

6%

$65.6K Vol.

$27.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

53%

Rafael Grossi

$41.0K Vol.

$18.5K Liq.

5

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

7%

$23M Vol.

$335K today

$980K Liq.

71

Ends in 8 months

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

52%

Nicolás Maduro

$85M Vol.

$122K today

$786K Liq.

312

Ends in 8 months

Israel military action against Iran by...?

Israel military action against Iran by...?

<1%

April 21

$3M Vol.

$102K today

$15.0K Liq.

70

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

29%

June 30

$589K Vol.

$40.4K Liq.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

2%

$7M Vol.

$317K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

6%

April 30

$1M Vol.

$81.2K Liq.

97

Ends in 7 days

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

7%

$51.6K Vol.

$20.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?

How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?

78%

2

$123K Vol.

$60.6K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

15%

$75.1K Vol.

$145K Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

6%

$341K Vol.

$182K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

13%

$101K Vol.

$40.5K Liq.

10

Ends in 8 months

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

13%

$38.0K Vol.

$24.3K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

9%

December 31, 2026

$2M Vol.

$66.3K Liq.

125

Ends in 8 months

Ukraine military action against Moscow by...?

Ukraine military action against Moscow by...?

4%

April 30

$165K Vol.

$17.8K Liq.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

17%

$342K Vol.

$222K Liq.

Ends in over 1 year

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?

57%

December 31, 2026

$29.4K Vol.

$2.4K Liq.

24

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 1569 active markets for UN that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Next Secretary-General of the United Nations”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $123.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Venezuela leader end of 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Venezuela leader end of 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 52% chance to Nicolás Maduro. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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