Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities since February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched massive airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites, air defenses, and leadership, no formal Congressional declaration of war has materialized—the last occurred during World War II. Senate Republicans blocked Democratic war powers resolutions this week, rejecting limits on executive military actions without authorization for use of military force. Recent Islamabad peace talks collapsed on April 12, straining a fragile two-week ceasefire amid Iranian Strait of Hormuz closures and US blockade threats. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, driven by historical reluctance for declarations, ongoing diplomatic signals like nuclear concessions, and economic constraints, with ceasefire expiration around April 22 as a potential market mover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$6,124,052 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
April 30
<1%
December 31
7%
$6,124,052 Vol.
April 30
$1,186,287 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$386,607 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities since February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched massive airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites, air defenses, and leadership, no formal Congressional declaration of war has materialized—the last occurred during World War II. Senate Republicans blocked Democratic war powers resolutions this week, rejecting limits on executive military actions without authorization for use of military force. Recent Islamabad peace talks collapsed on April 12, straining a fragile two-week ceasefire amid Iranian Strait of Hormuz closures and US blockade threats. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, driven by historical reluctance for declarations, ongoing diplomatic signals like nuclear concessions, and economic constraints, with ceasefire expiration around April 22 as a potential market mover.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$6,124,052End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities since February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched massive airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites, air defenses, and leadership, no formal Congressional declaration of war has materialized—the last occurred during World War II. Senate Republicans blocked Democratic war powers resolutions this week, rejecting limits on executive military actions without authorization for use of military force. Recent Islamabad peace talks collapsed on April 12, straining a fragile two-week ceasefire amid Iranian Strait of Hormuz closures and US blockade threats. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, driven by historical reluctance for declarations, ongoing diplomatic signals like nuclear concessions, and economic constraints, with ceasefire expiration around April 22 as a potential market mover.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,124,052End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities since February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched massive airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites, air defenses, and leadership, no formal Congressional declaration of war has materialized—the last occurred during World War II. Senate Republicans blocked Democratic war powers resolutions this week, rejecting limits on executive military actions without authorization for use of military force. Recent Islamabad peace talks collapsed on April 12, straining a fragile two-week ceasefire amid Iranian Strait of Hormuz closures and US blockade threats. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, driven by historical reluctance for declarations, ongoing diplomatic signals like nuclear concessions, and economic constraints, with ceasefire expiration around April 22 as a potential market mover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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