Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability of a Bank of Korea (BOK) base rate increase in July, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from March 2026 CPI at 2.2% year-over-year—up from February's 2.0% and driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict. The BOK held its benchmark at 2.50% on April 10 in its seventh straight pause, unanimously citing data-dependent policy amid Korean won volatility and growth softening to a revised 2% forecast, yet analysts like Citi and JPMorgan now project a 25 basis point hike in July to anchor inflation near the 2% target. No-change odds at 27% capture uncertainty ahead of April CPI and the May 28 meeting, while cuts remain negligible at 2% given resilient exports and upward GDP revisions to 3.0%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in July?
Bank of Korea decision in July?
Increase 66%
No Change 37%
Decrease 2.0%
$11,216 Vol.
$11,216 Vol.
Decrease
2%
No Change
37%
Increase
66%
Increase 66%
No Change 37%
Decrease 2.0%
$11,216 Vol.
$11,216 Vol.
Decrease
2%
No Change
37%
Increase
66%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability of a Bank of Korea (BOK) base rate increase in July, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from March 2026 CPI at 2.2% year-over-year—up from February's 2.0% and driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict. The BOK held its benchmark at 2.50% on April 10 in its seventh straight pause, unanimously citing data-dependent policy amid Korean won volatility and growth softening to a revised 2% forecast, yet analysts like Citi and JPMorgan now project a 25 basis point hike in July to anchor inflation near the 2% target. No-change odds at 27% capture uncertainty ahead of April CPI and the May 28 meeting, while cuts remain negligible at 2% given resilient exports and upward GDP revisions to 3.0%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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