Recent inflation data showing a March 2026 acceleration to 2.2%—above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target—combined with upward revisions to the CPI outlook amid surging global oil prices from Middle East tensions, has anchored the 62% implied probability of no change at the July meeting. Policymakers held the 2.50% base rate for the seventh straight time in April, citing balanced growth and financial stability risks, while Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai’s early-May comments introduced a hawkish tilt that lifted the implied odds of a hike to 41.5%. Solid semiconductor export momentum has kept downside growth risks contained near 2.0% for 2026, leaving the 1.5% probability of a cut minimal ahead of the May 28 decision and July data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in July?
No Change 62%
Increase 41%
Decrease 1.3%
$13,438 Vol.
$13,438 Vol.
Decrease
1%
No Change
62%
Increase
41%
No Change 62%
Increase 41%
Decrease 1.3%
$13,438 Vol.
$13,438 Vol.
Decrease
1%
No Change
62%
Increase
41%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing a March 2026 acceleration to 2.2%—above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target—combined with upward revisions to the CPI outlook amid surging global oil prices from Middle East tensions, has anchored the 62% implied probability of no change at the July meeting. Policymakers held the 2.50% base rate for the seventh straight time in April, citing balanced growth and financial stability risks, while Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai’s early-May comments introduced a hawkish tilt that lifted the implied odds of a hike to 41.5%. Solid semiconductor export momentum has kept downside growth risks contained near 2.0% for 2026, leaving the 1.5% probability of a cut minimal ahead of the May 28 decision and July data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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