South Korean authorities continue probing HYBE chairman Bang Si-hyuk over allegations of misleading investors ahead of the company's 2020 IPO, potentially violating the Capital Markets Act through undisclosed profit-sharing arrangements. Police sought arrest warrants in April 2026 but prosecutors rejected two requests for insufficient evidence, prompting further review as of mid-May while Bang remains subject to a travel ban and denies wrongdoing. This procedural uncertainty, combined with the lengthy investigation and high evidentiary thresholds for formal charges, underpins the closely balanced 50% implied probability. Additional witness testimony, new financial disclosures, or a successful third warrant bid could shift sentiment toward higher odds of indictment before year-end, while sustained prosecutorial skepticism or case closure would favor the opposing outcome.