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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

160-179 54%

140-159 33.8%

180-199 8.1%

200 or more 7%

Polymarket

$287,574 Vol.

160-179 54%

140-159 33.8%

180-199 8.1%

200 or more 7%

Polymarket

$287,574 Vol.

<100

$2,954 Vol.

1%

100-119

$1,727 Vol.

<1%

120-139

$2,429 Vol.

4%

140-159

$40,918 Vol.

34%

160-179

$85,604 Vol.

54%

180-199

$57,496 Vol.

8%

200 or more

$96,445 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus favors 160-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026 at 54.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering Q1 pace of 46 successful Falcon 9 missions through April 18—annualizing to roughly 154 flights amid surging Starlink deployments, including the 1,000th satellite orbited on April 14 via the 37th dedicated mission. Reusability enabling 2-3 weekly turnarounds from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Kennedy Space Center underpins this positioning, with historical 2025 records of 165+ launches providing precedent. The 140-159 bracket at 34.4% reflects caution over potential regulatory delays or summer weather impacts on range conditions. Starship Flight 12 targeted for early May could accelerate cadence if orbital success is achieved, with FAA updates key to shifting odds.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$287,574
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus favors 160-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026 at 54.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering Q1 pace of 46 successful Falcon 9 missions through April 18—annualizing to roughly 154 flights amid surging Starlink deployments, including the 1,000th satellite orbited on April 14 via the 37th dedicated mission. Reusability enabling 2-3 weekly turnarounds from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Kennedy Space Center underpins this positioning, with historical 2025 records of 165+ launches providing precedent. The 140-159 bracket at 34.4% reflects caution over potential regulatory delays or summer weather impacts on range conditions. Starship Flight 12 targeted for early May could accelerate cadence if orbital success is achieved, with FAA updates key to shifting odds.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$287,574
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Related

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Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

75%
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Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

47%
Market icon

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

94%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "160-179" at 55%, followed by "140-159" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" has generated $287.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" is "160-179" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "140-159" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.